Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 86%
1 arb excluded
$8.4K
$1.4K
Smart Money Signal
18 of 21 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$38.78 | 93% 22775-1740 (24515) |
AL almach | Downavg 66.3¢ | $694.47 | $1.0K | +$353.28 | 55% 48034-39638 (87672) |
BO bosona | Downavg 68.1¢ | $704.82 | $1.0K | +$330.09 | 55% 49293-39546 (88839) |
RL RLWG | Downavg 64¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$474.78 | 50% 7706-7712 (15418) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $712.32 | $713.03 | +$0.71 | 59% 62031-43103 (105134) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 76¢ | $476.68 | $508.73 | +$32.05 | 57% 10193-7628 (17821) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 57.7¢ | $329.26 | $476.66 | +$147.4 | 54% 15215-13117 (28332) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Downavg 83.6¢ | $286.61 | $263.86 | -$22.75 | 55% 44266-36741 (81007) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83.6¢ | $220.6 | $263.86 | +$43.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.3¢ | $66.01 | — | -$66.01 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 46.5¢ | $170.09 | $365.85 | +$195.76 | 58% 37465-26708 (64173) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 65.7¢ | $41.68 | $49.33 | +$7.65 | 57% 6591-4880 (11471) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 61.9¢ | $43.65 | $66.53 | +$22.88 | 55% 17439-14069 (31508) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $39.22 | $75.62 | +$36.4 | 54% 14395-12216 (26611) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 52.7¢ | $80.16 | $59.99 | +$49.07 | 65% 21975-12079 (34054) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $32.16 | $44.03 | +$11.87 | 63% 51357-30230 (81587) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $21.6 | — | -$21.6 | 58% 12531-9183 (21714) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $17.2 | $27.87 | +$10.67 | 52% 89581-84030 (173611) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $15.62 | — | -$15.62 | 58% 50830-36973 (87803) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $12.69 | $22.87 | +$10.18 | 66% 124813-64240 (189053) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $10.24 | $22.26 | +$12.02 | 65% 124444-66560 (191004) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $12.99 | $19.14 | +$6.15 | 61% 94136-59204 (153340) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $10 | +$5.2 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR | Upavg 34.4¢ | $280.75 | — | -$280.75 | 47% 400-459 (859) |
Invested
$1,998.79
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$38.78
Record
93%
22775-1740 (24515)
Invested
$694.47
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$353.28
Record
55%
48034-39638 (87672)
Invested
$704.82
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$330.09
Record
55%
49293-39546 (88839)
Invested
$1,105.27
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$474.78
Record
50%
7706-7712 (15418)
Invested
$712.32
Value
$713.03
PnL
+$0.71
Record
59%
62031-43103 (105134)
Invested
$476.68
Value
$508.73
PnL
+$32.05
Record
57%
10193-7628 (17821)
Invested
$329.26
Value
$476.66
PnL
+$147.4
Record
54%
15215-13117 (28332)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$286.61
Value
$263.86
PnL
-$22.75
Record
55%
44266-36741 (81007)
Both legs:
Invested
$170.09
Value
$365.85
PnL
+$195.76
Record
58%
37465-26708 (64173)
Invested
$41.68
Value
$49.33
PnL
+$7.65
Record
57%
6591-4880 (11471)
Invested
$43.65
Value
$66.53
PnL
+$22.88
Record
55%
17439-14069 (31508)
Invested
$39.22
Value
$75.62
PnL
+$36.4
Record
54%
14395-12216 (26611)
Invested
$80.16
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$49.07
Record
65%
21975-12079 (34054)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$32.16
Value
$44.03
PnL
+$11.87
Record
63%
51357-30230 (81587)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$21.6
Value
—
PnL
-$21.6
Record
58%
12531-9183 (21714)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$27.87
PnL
+$10.67
Record
52%
89581-84030 (173611)
Invested
$15.62
Value
—
PnL
-$15.62
Record
58%
50830-36973 (87803)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$22.87
PnL
+$10.18
Record
66%
124813-64240 (189053)
Invested
$10.24
Value
$22.26
PnL
+$12.02
Record
65%
124444-66560 (191004)
Invested
$12.99
Value
$19.14
PnL
+$6.15
Record
61%
94136-59204 (153340)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.2
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
Invested
$280.75
Value
—
PnL
-$280.75
Record
47%
400-459 (859)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $2.0K
almach
Down — $1.0K
bosona
Down — $1.0K
RLWG
Down — $1.6K
0x50f7
Down — $713.03
trdyugiolkw
Down — $508.73
aswfadq1555
Down — $476.66
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $365.85
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $49.33