Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 30 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares9,910

Combined PnL+$489.48

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,154

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWG	Downavg 72¢	$3.8K	$3.4K	-$314.41	50% 7706-7712 (15418)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.2¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$52.08	93% 22775-1740 (24515)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819	Downavg 62¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$139.9	47% 400-459 (859)
BO bosona	Downavg 73.8¢	$635.01	$853.95	+$218.94	55% 49293-39546 (88839)
wowitsamazingCTR	Upavg 43.4¢	$791.88	—	-$729.85	58% 12531-9183 (21714)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 59.9¢	$447.21	$621.47	+$174.26	54% 15215-13117 (28332)
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 39.2¢	$391.15	—	-$391.15	65% 3929-2114 (6043)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5ghARB<$100	Downavg 57.1¢	$242.32	$263.16	+$20.84	58% 1313-968 (2281)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.1¢	$150.26	$263.16	+$112.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$92.06	—	-$92.06
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 75.9¢	$245.62	$252.22	+$6.6	57% 6591-4880 (11471)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 72.8¢	$158.52	$217.62	+$59.09	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$168.06	$182.44	+$14.39	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.1¢	$131.61	$182.44	+$50.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.9¢	$36.45	—	-$36.45
JO JocJoCTR<$100	Upavg 36.8¢	$91.75	—	-$91.75	51% 939-896 (1835)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Upavg 43.9¢	$106.73	—	-$106.73	53% 1990-1797 (3787)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 65¢	$97.56	$150.09	+$52.53	62% 43627-26586 (70213)
YO YouSayUpISayDown	Downavg 70.4¢	$97.22	$138	+$40.78	53% 3685-3204 (6889)
AS asabovesobelow2CTR	Upavg 32.1¢	$195.75	—	-$195.75	69% 1602-722 (2324)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$49.09	$63.36	+$14.27	63% 51357-30230 (81587)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$37.7	$47.42	+$9.72	55% 17439-14069 (31508)
AR arbfinder2026CTR	Upavg 39.1¢	$939.11	—	-$939.11	55% 5308-4290 (9598)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$28.5	$50.13	+$21.63	65% 124444-66560 (191004)
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR	Upavg 41.8¢	$501.37	—	-$501.37	50% 634-637 (1271)
AA aaa221	Downavg 70.9¢	$164.05	$15.69	-$0.01	65% 21975-12079 (34054)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$10.76	—	-$10.76	56% 57668-44552 (102220)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$8.01	$13.38	+$5.37	66% 124813-64240 (189053)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 61¢	$4.52	$7.41	+$2.89	58% 60194-43949 (104143)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$3,762.52

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$314.41

Record

50%

7706-7712 (15418)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$2,782.92

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$52.08

Record

93%

22775-1740 (24515)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down

Invested

$1,037.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$139.9

Record

47%

400-459 (859)

bosona

Down

Invested

$635.01

Value

$853.95

PnL

+$218.94

Record

55%

49293-39546 (88839)

wowitsamazingCTR

Invested

$791.88

Value

—

PnL

-$729.85

Record

58%

12531-9183 (21714)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$447.21

Value

$621.47

PnL

+$174.26

Record

54%

15215-13117 (28332)

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$391.15

Value

—

PnL

-$391.15

Record

65%

3929-2114 (6043)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5ghARB<$100

Down

Invested

$242.32

Value

$263.16

PnL

+$20.84

Record

58%

1313-968 (2281)

Both legs:

Down$150.2657.1¢+$112.9

Up$92.0641.8¢-$92.06

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$245.62

Value

$252.22

PnL

+$6.6

Record

57%

6591-4880 (11471)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$158.52

Value

$217.62

PnL

+$59.09

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$168.06

Value

$182.44

PnL

+$14.39

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

Both legs:

Down$131.6172.1¢+$50.84

Up$36.4525.9¢-$36.45

JocJoCTR<$100

Invested

$91.75

Value

—

PnL

-$91.75

Record

51%

939-896 (1835)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Invested

$106.73

Value

—

PnL

-$106.73

Record

53%

1990-1797 (3787)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$97.56

Value

$150.09

PnL

+$52.53

Record

62%

43627-26586 (70213)

YouSayUpISayDown

Down

Invested

$97.22

Value

$138

PnL

+$40.78

Record

53%

3685-3204 (6889)

asabovesobelow2CTR

Invested

$195.75

Value

—

PnL

-$195.75

Record

69%

1602-722 (2324)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$49.09

Value

$63.36

PnL

+$14.27

Record

63%

51357-30230 (81587)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$37.7

Value

$47.42

PnL

+$9.72

Record

55%

17439-14069 (31508)

arbfinder2026CTR

Invested

$939.11

Value

—

PnL

-$939.11

Record

55%

5308-4290 (9598)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$28.5

Value

$50.13

PnL

+$21.63

Record

65%

124444-66560 (191004)

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR

Invested

$501.37

Value

—

PnL

-$501.37

Record

50%

634-637 (1271)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$164.05

Value

$15.69

PnL

-$0.01

Record

65%

21975-12079 (34054)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$10.76

Value

—

PnL

-$10.76

Record

56%

57668-44552 (102220)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$8.01

Value

$13.38

PnL

+$5.37

Record

66%

124813-64240 (189053)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$4.52

Value

$7.41

PnL

+$2.89

Record

58%

60194-43949 (104143)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 30 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1f6c7926...1c39e5

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793234700

Traders in this Market

RLWG

Down — $3.4K

-$314.41

hoodquant

Down — $2.8K

+$52.08

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $1.2K

+$139.9

bosona

Down — $853.95

+$218.94

wowitsamazing

CTR

Up — $0

-$729.85

aswfadq1555

Down — $621.47

+$174.26

Atomforge

CTR

Up — $0

-$391.15

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$20.84

peepeepoopoo24

Down — $252.22

+$6.6

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $217.62

+$59.09

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