Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 27 top traders (59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares17,671

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,462

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWG	Downavg 72.2¢	$5.4K	$4.0K	$-1.4K	50% 7706-7712 (15418)
BE berlinskiesCTR	Upavg 42¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K	58% 5777-4233 (10010)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.7¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$70.99	93% 22775-1740 (24515)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819	Downavg 65¢	$5.0K	$7.6K	+$2.6K	47% 400-459 (859)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5ghCTR	Upavg 38.1¢	$997.07	—	-$997.07	58% 1313-968 (2281)
AR arbfinder2026ARB<$100	Downavg 62.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$123.05	55% 5308-4290 (9598)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.1¢	$362.41	—	-$362.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.7¢	$817.15	$1.3K	+$485.45
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 69¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$52.78	55% 44266-36741 (81007)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$336.95	—	-$336.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$868.14	$1.3K	+$389.73
AD adururuCTR	Upavg 30.7¢	$490.25	—	-$490.25	53% 375-328 (703)
wowitsamazingCTR	Upavg 36.4¢	$634.37	—	-$560.37	58% 12531-9183 (21714)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 39.4¢	$500	—	-$500	35% 95-180 (275)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 55.2¢	$944.01	$1.1K	+$450.5	54% 14395-12216 (26611)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.5¢	$169.01	—	-$169.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.2¢	$582.75	$1.1K	+$619.51
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eARB<$100	Downavg 62.3¢	$588.36	$651.29	+$62.93	50% 634-637 (1271)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.1¢	$182.31	—	-$182.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.3¢	$406.05	$651.29	+$245.24
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 63.2¢	$333.9	$528.35	+$194.45	68% 98851-47176 (146027)
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 30.8¢	$247.39	—	-$247.39	65% 3929-2114 (6043)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 63.7¢	$527.43	$820.61	+$293.18	54% 15215-13117 (28332)
BossgirlARB<$100	Upavg 36.1¢	$383.23	$236	-$147.23	54% 4601-3920 (8521)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.1¢	$193.18	—	-$193.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.5¢	$190.05	$236	+$45.95
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$395.8	$447.34	+$51.54	57% 10193-7628 (17821)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.7¢	$293.95	$447.34	+$153.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.9¢	$101.85	—	-$101.85
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$265.62	$364.19	+$98.57	55% 49293-39546 (88839)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$246.4	$364.19	+$117.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 10.3¢	$19.22	—	-$19.22
AS asabovesobelow2ARB<$100	Downavg 94.5¢	$335.5	$266.22	-$69.28	69% 1602-722 (2324)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$84	—	-$84
└ Down leg	Downavg 94.5¢	$251.5	$266.22	+$14.72
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Upavg 34.4¢	$171.12	—	-$171.12	53% 1990-1797 (3787)
NIULAI4	Downavg 92.9¢	$704.82	$758.77	+$53.95	77% 9307-2743 (12050)
JO JocJoCTR<$100	Upavg 29.9¢	$95.75	—	-$95.75	51% 939-896 (1835)
LI Little-big	Downavg 51.3¢	$106.74	$208	+$101.26	34% 18574-35577 (54151)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 75.6¢	$289.58	$383	+$93.42	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$94.81	$110	+$15.19	57% 6591-4880 (11471)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.4¢	$85.1	$110	+$24.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 13¢	$9.71	—	-$9.71

RLWG

Down

Invested

$5,410.47

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

7706-7712 (15418)

berlinskiesCTR

Invested

$2,498.6

Value

—

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

58%

5777-4233 (10010)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$3,002.01

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$70.99

Record

93%

22775-1740 (24515)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down

Invested

$5,034.34

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

47%

400-459 (859)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5ghCTR

Invested

$997.07

Value

—

PnL

-$997.07

Record

58%

1313-968 (2281)

arbfinder2026ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,179.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$123.05

Record

55%

5308-4290 (9598)

Both legs:

Up$362.4131.1¢-$362.41

Down$817.1562.7¢+$485.45

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,205.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$52.78

Record

55%

44266-36741 (81007)

Both legs:

Up$336.9548.3¢-$336.95

Down$868.1469¢+$389.73

adururuCTR

Invested

$490.25

Value

—

PnL

-$490.25

Record

53%

375-328 (703)

wowitsamazingCTR

Invested

$634.37

Value

—

PnL

-$560.37

Record

58%

12531-9183 (21714)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

35%

95-180 (275)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$944.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$450.5

Record

54%

14395-12216 (26611)

Both legs:

Up$169.0136.5¢-$169.01

Down$582.7555.2¢+$619.51

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$588.36

Value

$651.29

PnL

+$62.93

Record

50%

634-637 (1271)

Both legs:

Up$182.3131.1¢-$182.31

Down$406.0562.3¢+$245.24

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$333.9

Value

$528.35

PnL

+$194.45

Record

68%

98851-47176 (146027)

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$247.39

Value

—

PnL

-$247.39

Record

65%

3929-2114 (6043)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$527.43

Value

$820.61

PnL

+$293.18

Record

54%

15215-13117 (28332)

BossgirlARB<$100

Invested

$383.23

Value

$236

PnL

-$147.23

Record

54%

4601-3920 (8521)

Both legs:

Up$193.1836.1¢-$193.18

Down$190.0580.5¢+$45.95

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$395.8

Value

$447.34

PnL

+$51.54

Record

57%

10193-7628 (17821)

Both legs:

Down$293.9565.7¢+$153.39

Up$101.8532.9¢-$101.85

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$265.62

Value

$364.19

PnL

+$98.57

Record

55%

49293-39546 (88839)

Both legs:

Down$246.467.7¢+$117.79

Up$19.2210.3¢-$19.22

asabovesobelow2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$335.5

Value

$266.22

PnL

-$69.28

Record

69%

1602-722 (2324)

Both legs:

Up$8430.5¢-$84

Down$251.594.5¢+$14.72

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Invested

$171.12

Value

—

PnL

-$171.12

Record

53%

1990-1797 (3787)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$704.82

Value

$758.77

PnL

+$53.95

Record

77%

9307-2743 (12050)

JocJoCTR<$100

Invested

$95.75

Value

—

PnL

-$95.75

Record

51%

939-896 (1835)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$106.74

Value

$208

PnL

+$101.26

Record

34%

18574-35577 (54151)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$289.58

Value

$383

PnL

+$93.42

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$94.81

Value

$110

PnL

+$15.19

Record

57%

6591-4880 (11471)

Both legs:

Down$85.177.4¢+$24.9

Up$9.7113¢-$9.71

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 27 top traders (59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd758baec...8f361c

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793233800

Traders in this Market

RLWG

Down — $4.0K

$-1.4K

berlinskies

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.5K

hoodquant

Down — $3.1K

+$70.99

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $7.6K

+$2.6K

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Up — $0

arbfinder2026

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Arbitrage — excluded

adururu

Up — $0

wowitsamazing

Up — $0

Imgonnadoit

Up — $0