Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 69%
1 arb excluded
$7.4K
-$392.46
Smart Money Signal
18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.6¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$66.51 | 93% 22744-1740 (24484) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 85.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$57.51 | 57% 10181-7623 (17804) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 90.1¢ | $977.97 | $1.0K | +$41.02 | 55% 44239-36719 (80958) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $816.53 | $817.35 | +$0.82 | 59% 62020-43089 (105109) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Upavg 35.3¢ | $750 | — | -$750 | 34% 91-173 (264) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $343.78 | $409.39 | +$65.61 | 54% 15206-13113 (28319) |
BO bosona | Downavg 67¢ | $163.39 | $244 | +$80.6 | 55% 49291-39546 (88837) |
 wowitsamazingARB<$100 | Upavg 14.8¢ | $169.06 | $73.58 | -$95.48 | 58% 12529-9180 (21709) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14.8¢ | $130.06 | — | -$130.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53¢ | $39 | $73.58 | +$34.58 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $117.42 | $128.35 | +$10.93 | 57% 6585-4873 (11458) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 54.3¢ | $123.44 | $178.21 | +$54.77 | 34% 18565-35570 (54135) |
 UpandDownSyndrome | Downavg 83.8¢ | $86.83 | $103.59 | +$16.76 | 63% 51338-30220 (81558) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $82.57 | $98.38 | +$15.81 | 47% 398-457 (855) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $59.67 | $65.64 | +$5.97 | 66% 124759-64225 (188984) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $55.7 | $70.52 | +$14.82 | 55% 17411-14044 (31455) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 87.4¢ | $106.14 | $51.64 | +$8.7 | 65% 21925-12064 (33989) |
AR arbfinder2026CTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $96 | — | -$68.71 | 55% 5308-4290 (9598) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $30.54 | $34.44 | +$3.9 | 52% 89542-84009 (173551) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 87.6¢ | $30.13 | $34.38 | +$4.25 | 61% 94094-59183 (153277) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 63.7¢ | $39.48 | $62 | +$22.52 | 58% 37445-26686 (64131) |
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR<$100 | Upavg 8.6¢ | $51.34 | — | -$37.84 | 50% 634-637 (1271) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $9.2 | $10 | +$0.8 | 56% 57656-44547 (102203) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $5 | $6.1 | +$1.1 | 77% 285-83 (368) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 65% 124408-66548 (190956) |
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $1.9 | — | -$1.9 | 21% 140-517 (657) |
JO JocJoCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $3.08 | — | -$2.45 | 51% 939-895 (1834) |
Invested
$2,725.51
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$66.51
Record
93%
22744-1740 (24484)
Invested
$1,103.97
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$57.51
Record
57%
10181-7623 (17804)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$977.97
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$41.02
Record
55%
44239-36719 (80958)
Invested
$816.53
Value
$817.35
PnL
+$0.82
Record
59%
62020-43089 (105109)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$750
Record
34%
91-173 (264)
Invested
$343.78
Value
$409.39
PnL
+$65.61
Record
54%
15206-13113 (28319)
Invested
$163.39
Value
$244
PnL
+$80.6
Record
55%
49291-39546 (88837)
wowitsamazingARB<$100Invested
$169.06
Value
$73.58
PnL
-$95.48
Record
58%
12529-9180 (21709)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.42
Value
$128.35
PnL
+$10.93
Record
57%
6585-4873 (11458)
Invested
$123.44
Value
$178.21
PnL
+$54.77
Record
34%
18565-35570 (54135)
UpandDownSyndromeInvested
$86.83
Value
$103.59
PnL
+$16.76
Record
63%
51338-30220 (81558)
Invested
$82.57
Value
$98.38
PnL
+$15.81
Record
47%
398-457 (855)
Invested
$59.67
Value
$65.64
PnL
+$5.97
Record
66%
124759-64225 (188984)
Invested
$55.7
Value
$70.52
PnL
+$14.82
Record
55%
17411-14044 (31455)
Invested
$106.14
Value
$51.64
PnL
+$8.7
Record
65%
21925-12064 (33989)
Invested
$96
Value
—
PnL
-$68.71
Record
55%
5308-4290 (9598)
Invested
$30.54
Value
$34.44
PnL
+$3.9
Record
52%
89542-84009 (173551)
Invested
$30.13
Value
$34.38
PnL
+$4.25
Record
61%
94094-59183 (153277)
Invested
$39.48
Value
$62
PnL
+$22.52
Record
58%
37445-26686 (64131)
Invested
$51.34
Value
—
PnL
-$37.84
Record
50%
634-637 (1271)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.8
Record
56%
57656-44547 (102203)
Invested
$5
Value
$6.1
PnL
+$1.1
Record
77%
285-83 (368)
Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
65%
124408-66548 (190956)
Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
21%
140-517 (657)
Invested
$3.08
Value
—
PnL
-$2.45
Record
51%
939-895 (1834)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $2.8K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $1.2K
MayorMamdani
Down — $1.0K
0x50f7
Down — $817.35
Imgonnadoit
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
Down — $409.39
bosona
Down — $244
wowitsamazing
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $128.35
Little-big
Down — $178.21