Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 90% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 90%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 21 top traders (90%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,261

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$46.02

Down — 90%Up — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 60.2¢	$988.13	$969.7	-$18.43	57% 10181-7623 (17804)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 71.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$14.5	54% 15206-13113 (28319)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$279.18	$282	+$2.82	93% 22744-1740 (24484)
BO bosona	Downavg 83.5¢	$206.38	$238.85	+$32.48	55% 49291-39546 (88837)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 76.3¢	$264.95	$192	-$72.95	54% 14387-12207 (26594)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 75.2¢	$234.07	$185	-$49.07	55% 44239-36719 (80958)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$94.94	—	-$94.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.2¢	$139.13	$185	+$45.87
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 62¢	$205.2	$186.18	-$19.01	57% 6585-4873 (11458)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$115.39	$186.18	+$70.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$89.81	—	-$89.81
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Downavg 57.2¢	$93.5	$120.34	+$26.84	73% 95006-35638 (130644)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.2¢	$68.85	$120.34	+$51.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 29¢	$24.65	—	-$24.65
RL RLWGARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$117.35	$150	+$32.65	50% 7699-7709 (15408)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$75	$150	+$75
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$42.35	—	-$42.35
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819	Downavg 94¢	$96.5	$100	+$3.5	47% 398-457 (855)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$70.32	$56.85	+$10.24	65% 21925-12064 (33989)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 81¢	$62	$50	-$12	65% 124408-66548 (190956)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81¢	$40.5	$50	+$9.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$21.5	—	-$21.5
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 69¢	$69.03	$100.04	+$31.01	58% 60182-43943 (104125)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 96.6¢	$46.39	$48	+$1.61	77% 9303-2743 (12046)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Upavg 45.9¢	$32.37	—	-$32.37	58% 5773-4231 (10004)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Downavg 93.1¢	$36.5	$39.22	+$2.72	69% 1601-722 (2323)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$21.29	$43.61	+$22.32	62% 43621-26580 (70201)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 56¢	$14.61	$26.08	+$11.47	66% 111604-57865 (169469)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 67.3¢	$13.12	$19.49	+$6.37	65% 3923-2114 (6037)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 69¢	$19.95	$24.7	+$4.75	61% 94094-59183 (153277)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 80¢	$12.98	$16.22	+$3.24	63% 51338-30220 (81558)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 44¢	$12.94	$29.4	+$16.46	64% 39768-22729 (62497)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$10.7	$20	+$9.3	34% 18565-35570 (54135)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$12.36	$18.28	+$5.92	52% 89542-84009 (173551)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 48.3¢	$13.65	—	-$13.65	55% 17411-14044 (31455)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$988.13

Value

$969.7

PnL

-$18.43

Record

57%

10181-7623 (17804)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$1,051.42

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$14.5

Record

54%

15206-13113 (28319)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$279.18

Value

$282

PnL

+$2.82

Record

93%

22744-1740 (24484)

bosona

Down

Invested

$206.38

Value

$238.85

PnL

+$32.48

Record

55%

49291-39546 (88837)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$264.95

Value

$192

PnL

-$72.95

Record

54%

14387-12207 (26594)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$234.07

Value

$185

PnL

-$49.07

Record

55%

44239-36719 (80958)

Both legs:

Up$94.9452.2¢-$94.94

Down$139.1375.2¢+$45.87

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$205.2

Value

$186.18

PnL

-$19.01

Record

57%

6585-4873 (11458)

Both legs:

Down$115.3962¢+$70.8

Up$89.8157.5¢-$89.81

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$93.5

Value

$120.34

PnL

+$26.84

Record

73%

95006-35638 (130644)

Both legs:

Down$68.8557.2¢+$51.49

Up$24.6529¢-$24.65

RLWGARB<$100

Down

Invested

$117.35

Value

$150

PnL

+$32.65

Record

50%

7699-7709 (15408)

Both legs:

Down$7550¢+$75

Up$42.3565.2¢-$42.35

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down

Invested

$96.5

Value

$100

PnL

+$3.5

Record

47%

398-457 (855)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$70.32

Value

$56.85

PnL

+$10.24

Record

65%

21925-12064 (33989)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$62

Value

$50

PnL

-$12

Record

65%

124408-66548 (190956)

Both legs:

Down$40.581¢+$9.5

Up$21.550¢-$21.5

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$69.03

Value

$100.04

PnL

+$31.01

Record

58%

60182-43943 (104125)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$46.39

Value

$48

PnL

+$1.61

Record

77%

9303-2743 (12046)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Invested

$32.37

Value

—

PnL

-$32.37

Record

58%

5773-4231 (10004)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Down

Invested

$36.5

Value

$39.22

PnL

+$2.72

Record

69%

1601-722 (2323)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$21.29

Value

$43.61

PnL

+$22.32

Record

62%

43621-26580 (70201)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$14.61

Value

$26.08

PnL

+$11.47

Record

66%

111604-57865 (169469)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$13.12

Value

$19.49

PnL

+$6.37

Record

65%

3923-2114 (6037)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$19.95

Value

$24.7

PnL

+$4.75

Record

61%

94094-59183 (153277)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$12.98

Value

$16.22

PnL

+$3.24

Record

63%

51338-30220 (81558)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$12.94

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$16.46

Record

64%

39768-22729 (62497)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$10.7

Value

$20

PnL

+$9.3

Record

34%

18565-35570 (54135)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$12.36

Value

$18.28

PnL

+$5.92

Record

52%

89542-84009 (173551)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$13.65

Value

—

PnL

-$13.65

Record

55%

17411-14044 (31455)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 21 top traders (90%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc552795d...cb5966

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793232000

Traders in this Market

trdyugiolkw

Down — $969.7

-$18.43

aswfadq1555

Down — $1.0K

-$14.5

hoodquant

Down — $282

+$2.82

bosona

Down — $238.85

+$32.48

tmsd-test

Down — $192

MayorMamdani

Arbitrage — excluded

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Arbitrage — excluded

RLWG

Arbitrage — excluded

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $100

+$3.5

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