Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Up 89%
1 arb excluded
$3.9K
$82.64
Smart Money Signal
17 of 19 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 84.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.11 | 64% 57632-32369 (90001) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 84.2¢ | $642.04 | $591.52 | -$50.52 | 57% 10169-7617 (17786) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 81¢ | $540.04 | $571.04 | +$31.01 | 54% 15199-13106 (28305) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 88.1¢ | $445.11 | $453.1 | +$7.99 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $257.4 | $260 | +$2.6 | 93% 22702-1736 (24438) |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 81¢ | $135.27 | $167 | +$31.73 | 54% 14375-12192 (26567) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 88.6¢ | $145.6 | $123.99 | -$21.61 | 55% 44215-36703 (80918) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 88.6¢ | $109.83 | $123.99 | +$14.16 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.9¢ | $35.77 | — | -$35.77 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 85.5¢ | $126.26 | $120 | -$6.26 | 57% 6579-4872 (11451) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819 | Upavg 85¢ | $85 | $100 | +$15 | 47% 398-455 (853) |
RL RLWG | Upavg 78.4¢ | $82.32 | $105 | +$22.68 | 50% 7697-7703 (15400) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 86.1¢ | $63.47 | $69.25 | +$5.78 | 66% 124717-64207 (188924) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $50.05 | $50.1 | +$0.05 | 59% 62012-43078 (105090) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 88.5¢ | $49.37 | $50.75 | +$6.19 | 64% 21886-12047 (33933) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 52.9¢ | $38.25 | $72.3 | +$34.05 | 58% 12525-9169 (21694) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $27.04 | — | -$27.04 | 62% 43616-26566 (70182) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 87.6¢ | $32.31 | $34.09 | +$1.78 | 61% 94062-59155 (153217) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $14.41 | $13 | -$1.41 | 52% 89516-83965 (173481) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $5.6 | $7 | +$1.4 | 64% 39757-22720 (62477) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 7¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 65% 124383-66536 (190919) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 88.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19837-18971 (38808) |
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,058.23
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.11
Record
64%
57632-32369 (90001)
Invested
$642.04
Value
$591.52
PnL
-$50.52
Record
57%
10169-7617 (17786)
Invested
$540.04
Value
$571.04
PnL
+$31.01
Record
54%
15199-13106 (28305)
Invested
$445.11
Value
$453.1
PnL
+$7.99
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Invested
$257.4
Value
$260
PnL
+$2.6
Record
93%
22702-1736 (24438)
Invested
$135.27
Value
$167
PnL
+$31.73
Record
54%
14375-12192 (26567)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$145.6
Value
$123.99
PnL
-$21.61
Record
55%
44215-36703 (80918)
Both legs:
Invested
$126.26
Value
$120
PnL
-$6.26
Record
57%
6579-4872 (11451)
Invested
$85
Value
$100
PnL
+$15
Record
47%
398-455 (853)
Invested
$82.32
Value
$105
PnL
+$22.68
Record
50%
7697-7703 (15400)
Invested
$63.47
Value
$69.25
PnL
+$5.78
Record
66%
124717-64207 (188924)
Invested
$50.05
Value
$50.1
PnL
+$0.05
Record
59%
62012-43078 (105090)
Invested
$49.37
Value
$50.75
PnL
+$6.19
Record
64%
21886-12047 (33933)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$38.25
Value
$72.3
PnL
+$34.05
Record
58%
12525-9169 (21694)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$27.04
Value
—
PnL
-$27.04
Record
62%
43616-26566 (70182)
Invested
$32.31
Value
$34.09
PnL
+$1.78
Record
61%
94062-59155 (153217)
Invested
$14.41
Value
$13
PnL
-$1.41
Record
52%
89516-83965 (173481)
ohioism<$100Invested
$5.6
Value
$7
PnL
+$1.4
Record
64%
39757-22720 (62477)
Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
65%
124383-66536 (190919)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19837-18971 (38808)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $1.1K
trdyugiolkw
Up — $591.52
aswfadq1555
Up — $571.04
thesidehustle
Up — $453.1
hoodquant
Up — $260
tmsd-test
Up — $167
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
Up — $120
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819
Up — $100
RLWG
Up — $105