Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Signal

17 of 22 top traders (77%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,338

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares572

Combined PnL-$259.03

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 73.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$8.09	56% 14167-11114 (25281)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.3¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$39.74	93% 22702-1736 (24438)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$623.35	$688.71	+$65.36	57% 10169-7617 (17786)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$345.24	$688.71	+$343.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$278.11	—	-$278.11
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 73.9¢	$336.98	$300.47	-$36.51	54% 10483-8946 (19429)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$293.55	$270.44	-$23.11	57% 6579-4872 (11451)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$143.07	—	-$143.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.6¢	$150.49	$270.44	+$119.96
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 44.6¢	$122.59	$160.17	+$37.59	64% 57632-32369 (90001)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.2¢	$51.11	—	-$51.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.6¢	$71.47	$160.17	+$88.7
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100	Downavg 26.1¢	$76.24	—	-$76.24	47% 398-455 (853)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 54¢	$148.34	$252.38	+$104.03	54% 15199-13106 (28305)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$136.4	$252.38	+$115.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.8¢	$11.95	—	-$11.95
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$167.98	$162.94	-$5.04	66% 124717-64207 (188924)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.5¢	$78.66	—	-$78.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.8¢	$89.32	$162.94	+$73.62
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 50¢	$135.97	$271.93	+$135.97	58% 37423-26662 (64085)
RL RLWGCTR	Downavg 56.5¢	$127.09	—	-$127.09	50% 7697-7703 (15400)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$57.7	$68.26	+$10.56	61% 94062-59155 (153217)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 48¢	$142.35	$85.33	+$30.87	65% 124383-66536 (190919)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$55.6	$69.49	+$13.89	52% 89516-83965 (173481)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.1¢	$32.73	$69.49	+$36.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$22.87	—	-$22.87
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 56.8¢	$57	$100.39	+$43.39	58% 60164-43933 (104097)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	$75.5	$87.31	+$11.81	69% 1599-721 (2320)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 89.6¢	$71.69	$80	+$8.31	77% 9298-2742 (12040)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 50¢	$24.7	$49.39	+$24.7	58% 50817-36958 (87775)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$27.8	—	-$27.8	64% 21886-12047 (33933)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 55.8¢	$19.6	—	-$19.6	55% 17378-14015 (31393)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 86.7¢	$18.62	$21.47	+$2.85	65% 3921-2112 (6033)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$8.3	—	-$8.3	55% 44215-36703 (80918)
TM tmsd-test<$100	Upavg 48.4¢	$8.02	$16.57	+$8.56	54% 14375-12192 (26567)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 72¢	$12.87	$17.88	+$5.01	56% 57642-44528 (102170)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 76¢	$10.33	$13.59	+$3.26	63% 51325-30204 (81529)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,931.77

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$8.09

Record

56%

14167-11114 (25281)

hoodquant

Invested

$2,262.26

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$39.74

Record

93%

22702-1736 (24438)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$623.35

Value

$688.71

PnL

+$65.36

Record

57%

10169-7617 (17786)

Both legs:

Up$345.2450.1¢+$343.47

Down$278.1155.4¢-$278.11

thesidehustle

Invested

$336.98

Value

$300.47

PnL

-$36.51

Record

54%

10483-8946 (19429)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$293.55

Value

$270.44

PnL

-$23.11

Record

57%

6579-4872 (11451)

Both legs:

Down$143.0757.9¢-$143.07

Up$150.4955.6¢+$119.96

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$122.59

Value

$160.17

PnL

+$37.59

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

Both legs:

Down$51.1129.2¢-$51.11

Up$71.4744.6¢+$88.7

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$76.24

Value

—

PnL

-$76.24

Record

47%

398-455 (853)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$148.34

Value

$252.38

PnL

+$104.03

Record

54%

15199-13106 (28305)

Both legs:

Up$136.454¢+$115.98

Down$11.9514.8¢-$11.95

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$167.98

Value

$162.94

PnL

-$5.04

Record

66%

124717-64207 (188924)

Both legs:

Down$78.6658.5¢-$78.66

Up$89.3254.8¢+$73.62

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$135.97

Value

$271.93

PnL

+$135.97

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

RLWGCTR

Down

Invested

$127.09

Value

—

PnL

-$127.09

Record

50%

7697-7703 (15400)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$57.7

Value

$68.26

PnL

+$10.56

Record

61%

94062-59155 (153217)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$142.35

Value

$85.33

PnL

+$30.87

Record

65%

124383-66536 (190919)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Invested

$55.6

Value

$69.49

PnL

+$13.89

Record

52%

89516-83965 (173481)

Both legs:

Up$32.7347.1¢+$36.76

Down$22.8748.9¢-$22.87

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$57

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$43.39

Record

58%

60164-43933 (104097)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Invested

$75.5

Value

$87.31

PnL

+$11.81

Record

69%

1599-721 (2320)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$71.69

Value

$80

PnL

+$8.31

Record

77%

9298-2742 (12040)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$24.7

Value

$49.39

PnL

+$24.7

Record

58%

50817-36958 (87775)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.8

Value

—

PnL

-$27.8

Record

64%

21886-12047 (33933)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.6

Value

—

PnL

-$19.6

Record

55%

17378-14015 (31393)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$18.62

Value

$21.47

PnL

+$2.85

Record

65%

3921-2112 (6033)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.3

Value

—

PnL

-$8.3

Record

55%

44215-36703 (80918)

tmsd-test<$100

Invested

$8.02

Value

$16.57

PnL

+$8.56

Record

54%

14375-12192 (26567)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$12.87

Value

$17.88

PnL

+$5.01

Record

56%

57642-44528 (102170)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$10.33

Value

$13.59

PnL

+$3.26

Record

63%

51325-30204 (81529)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 22 top traders (77%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x20c6c045...f4c265

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793223000

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.9K

-$8.09

hoodquant

Up — $2.3K

+$39.74

trdyugiolkw

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$65.36

thesidehustle

Up — $300.47

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $0

aswfadq1555

Arbitrage — excluded

asdaefef

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $271.93

+$135.97

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