Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Up 69%
6 arb excluded
$5.4K
$160.65
Smart Money Signal
12 of 17 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$29.3 | 93% 22666-1735 (24401) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 36.3¢ | $1.3K | $957.55 | -$381.76 | 54% 15195-13099 (28294) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.3¢ | $732.02 | — | -$732.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.4¢ | $607.3 | $957.55 | +$350.26 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 29.8¢ | $434.53 | $319.79 | -$114.74 | 56% 14155-11105 (25260) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.8¢ | $274.44 | — | -$274.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $160.09 | $319.79 | +$159.7 | |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 66.5¢ | $400.19 | $398.5 | -$1.69 | 57% 10156-7610 (17766) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.9¢ | $135.04 | — | -$135.04 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.5¢ | $265.15 | $398.5 | +$133.36 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $183.06 | $186.77 | +$3.71 | 54% 10483-8946 (19429) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 15.9¢ | $35.07 | — | -$35.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.2¢ | $147.99 | $186.77 | +$38.78 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $99.3 | $107.42 | +$8.11 | 57% 6575-4868 (11443) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 25.6¢ | $28.25 | — | -$28.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.2¢ | $71.06 | $107.42 | +$36.36 | |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $89.43 | — | -$89.43 | 58% 50806-36950 (87756) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 48.5¢ | $80.05 | $165.17 | +$85.12 | 34% 18536-35559 (54095) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 47¢ | $76.2 | $162.13 | +$85.93 | 58% 37406-26644 (64050) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $60.57 | $64 | +$3.43 | 66% 98681-51051 (149732) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Upavg 68.1¢ | $55.93 | $64.87 | +$8.94 | 66% 124678-64187 (188865) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.1¢ | $44.2 | $64.87 | +$20.67 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23¢ | $11.73 | — | -$11.73 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $56.5 | $75.41 | +$18.91 | 55% 17349-13981 (31330) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 63.4¢ | $24.87 | $35.94 | +$11.07 | 52% 89477-83931 (173408) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $37.2 | $52.39 | +$15.19 | 56% 57617-44504 (102121) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 63.6¢ | $29.54 | $46.47 | +$16.93 | 61% 94030-59124 (153154) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $17.27 | — | -$17.27 | 62% 43601-26547 (70148) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 98.7¢ | $15.35 | $15.55 | +$0.2 | 63% 51314-30185 (81499) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $20.73 | $29.2 | +$8.47 | 64% 39741-22699 (62440) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $5.15 | $5 | -$0.15 | 50% 7686-7698 (15384) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $3.2 | — | -$3.2 | 55% 44184-36684 (80868) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 65% 3914-2109 (6023) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $1.25 | — | -$1.25 | 69% 1597-721 (2318) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19816-18956 (38772) |
Invested
$2,654.7
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$29.3
Record
93%
22666-1735 (24401)
Invested
$1,339.31
Value
$957.55
PnL
-$381.76
Record
54%
15195-13099 (28294)
Both legs:
Invested
$434.53
Value
$319.79
PnL
-$114.74
Record
56%
14155-11105 (25260)
Both legs:
Invested
$400.19
Value
$398.5
PnL
-$1.69
Record
57%
10156-7610 (17766)
Both legs:
Invested
$183.06
Value
$186.77
PnL
+$3.71
Record
54%
10483-8946 (19429)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.3
Value
$107.42
PnL
+$8.11
Record
57%
6575-4868 (11443)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.43
Value
—
PnL
-$89.43
Record
58%
50806-36950 (87756)
Invested
$80.05
Value
$165.17
PnL
+$85.12
Record
34%
18536-35559 (54095)
Invested
$76.2
Value
$162.13
PnL
+$85.93
Record
58%
37406-26644 (64050)
Invested
$60.57
Value
$64
PnL
+$3.43
Record
66%
98681-51051 (149732)
Invested
$55.93
Value
$64.87
PnL
+$8.94
Record
66%
124678-64187 (188865)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.5
Value
$75.41
PnL
+$18.91
Record
55%
17349-13981 (31330)
Invested
$24.87
Value
$35.94
PnL
+$11.07
Record
52%
89477-83931 (173408)
Invested
$37.2
Value
$52.39
PnL
+$15.19
Record
56%
57617-44504 (102121)
Invested
$29.54
Value
$46.47
PnL
+$16.93
Record
61%
94030-59124 (153154)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$17.27
Value
—
PnL
-$17.27
Record
62%
43601-26547 (70148)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$15.35
Value
$15.55
PnL
+$0.2
Record
63%
51314-30185 (81499)
ohioism<$100Invested
$20.73
Value
$29.2
PnL
+$8.47
Record
64%
39741-22699 (62440)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
7686-7698 (15384)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.2
Value
—
PnL
-$3.2
Record
55%
44184-36684 (80868)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
65%
3914-2109 (6023)
Invested
$1.25
Value
—
PnL
-$1.25
Record
69%
1597-721 (2318)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19816-18956 (38772)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $2.7K
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
PBot-6
CTRDown — $0
Little-big
Up — $165.17
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $162.13
Bonereaper
Up — $64