Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 79%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$77.01
Smart Money Signal
16 of 20 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 89.2¢ | $875.97 | $981.9 | +$105.92 | 66% 98656-51035 (149691) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $616.42 | $629 | +$12.58 | 93% 22640-1735 (24375) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 14.1¢ | $189.13 | $124.26 | -$64.87 | 56% 14140-11096 (25236) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 14.1¢ | $109.57 | — | -$109.57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64¢ | $79.55 | $124.26 | +$44.71 | |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 74.3¢ | $306.18 | $266.52 | -$39.66 | 57% 10140-7604 (17744) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 78.1¢ | $125.03 | $136.67 | +$11.64 | 54% 10468-8936 (19404) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 50.8¢ | $101.58 | $199.99 | +$98.42 | 34% 18536-35559 (54095) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 84.4¢ | $59.03 | $64.64 | +$5.61 | 66% 124638-64161 (188799) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 18.1¢ | $109.37 | — | -$109.37 | 54% 15186-13093 (28279) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 71.4¢ | $41.93 | $50 | +$8.07 | 57% 6567-4864 (11431) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 80.3¢ | $26.17 | $24.15 | -$2.02 | 61% 93995-59086 (153081) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $18.81 | $25.08 | +$6.27 | 58% 60135-43896 (104031) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.7¢ | $16.13 | — | -$16.13 | 55% 44146-36636 (80782) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $11.99 | — | -$11.99 | 56% 57606-44494 (102100) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $9.24 | $12 | +$2.76 | 62% 43590-26534 (70124) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $8.26 | $10.33 | +$2.07 | 65% 21769-11955 (33724) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $6.8 | $5 | -$1.8 | 55% 17309-13927 (31236) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $4.97 | $9.56 | +$4.59 | 58% 37384-26627 (64011) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $4.1 | $5.06 | +$0.96 | 65% 3908-2105 (6013) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $1.36 | — | -$1.36 | 52% 89438-83891 (173329) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $2 | $2.47 | +$0.47 | 69% 1596-721 (2317) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19801-18940 (38741) |
Invested
$875.97
Value
$981.9
PnL
+$105.92
Record
66%
98656-51035 (149691)
Invested
$616.42
Value
$629
PnL
+$12.58
Record
93%
22640-1735 (24375)
Invested
$189.13
Value
$124.26
PnL
-$64.87
Record
56%
14140-11096 (25236)
Both legs:
Invested
$306.18
Value
$266.52
PnL
-$39.66
Record
57%
10140-7604 (17744)
Invested
$125.03
Value
$136.67
PnL
+$11.64
Record
54%
10468-8936 (19404)
Invested
$101.58
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$98.42
Record
34%
18536-35559 (54095)
Invested
$59.03
Value
$64.64
PnL
+$5.61
Record
66%
124638-64161 (188799)
Invested
$109.37
Value
—
PnL
-$109.37
Record
54%
15186-13093 (28279)
Invested
$41.93
Value
$50
PnL
+$8.07
Record
57%
6567-4864 (11431)
Invested
$26.17
Value
$24.15
PnL
-$2.02
Record
61%
93995-59086 (153081)
Invested
$18.81
Value
$25.08
PnL
+$6.27
Record
58%
60135-43896 (104031)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$16.13
Value
—
PnL
-$16.13
Record
55%
44146-36636 (80782)
Invested
$11.99
Value
—
PnL
-$11.99
Record
56%
57606-44494 (102100)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$9.24
Value
$12
PnL
+$2.76
Record
62%
43590-26534 (70124)
Invested
$8.26
Value
$10.33
PnL
+$2.07
Record
65%
21769-11955 (33724)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.8
Record
55%
17309-13927 (31236)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$9.56
PnL
+$4.59
Record
58%
37384-26627 (64011)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$4.1
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.96
Record
65%
3908-2105 (6013)
Invested
$1.36
Value
—
PnL
-$1.36
Record
52%
89438-83891 (173329)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.47
PnL
+$0.47
Record
69%
1596-721 (2317)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19801-18940 (38741)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $981.9
hoodquant
Up — $629
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
trdyugiolkw
Up — $266.52
thesidehustle
Up — $136.67
Little-big
Up — $199.99
asdaefef
Up — $64.64
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
peepeepoopoo24
Up — $50
asidjasiodja
Up — $24.15