Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Up 71%
1 arb excluded
$5.1K
$259.04
Smart Money Signal
11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$22.62 | 93% 22640-1735 (24375) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 70.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$118.46 | 56% 14140-11096 (25236) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 75.2¢ | $831.54 | $779.95 | -$51.59 | 54% 15186-13093 (28279) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75.2¢ | $586.41 | $779.95 | +$193.55 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.2¢ | $245.13 | — | -$245.13 | |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 65.8¢ | $368.44 | $305.92 | -$62.51 | 57% 10140-7604 (17744) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 67.7¢ | $263.1 | $335.43 | +$72.33 | 66% 98656-51035 (149691) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 53.5¢ | $107.05 | $200.27 | +$93.22 | 34% 18536-35559 (54095) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $55.34 | $81.38 | +$26.04 | 54% 14359-12176 (26535) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 82.9¢ | $74.3 | $66.88 | -$7.42 | 66% 124638-64161 (188799) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $40.81 | $77 | +$36.19 | 58% 37384-26627 (64011) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 81.1¢ | $43.54 | $37.94 | -$1.15 | 65% 21769-11955 (33724) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $28.6 | $23.99 | -$4.61 | 55% 44146-36636 (80782) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $19.4 | — | -$19.4 | 55% 17309-13927 (31236) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $5.8 | — | -$5.8 | 65% 124308-66488 (190796) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.1¢ | $5.43 | — | -$5.43 | 61% 93995-59086 (153081) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 28.9¢ | $3.49 | — | -$3.49 | 52% 89438-83891 (173329) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19801-18940 (38741) |
Invested
$1,886.37
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$22.62
Record
93%
22640-1735 (24375)
Invested
$1,189.69
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$118.46
Record
56%
14140-11096 (25236)
Invested
$831.54
Value
$779.95
PnL
-$51.59
Record
54%
15186-13093 (28279)
Both legs:
Invested
$368.44
Value
$305.92
PnL
-$62.51
Record
57%
10140-7604 (17744)
Invested
$263.1
Value
$335.43
PnL
+$72.33
Record
66%
98656-51035 (149691)
Invested
$107.05
Value
$200.27
PnL
+$93.22
Record
34%
18536-35559 (54095)
Invested
$55.34
Value
$81.38
PnL
+$26.04
Record
54%
14359-12176 (26535)
Invested
$74.3
Value
$66.88
PnL
-$7.42
Record
66%
124638-64161 (188799)
Invested
$40.81
Value
$77
PnL
+$36.19
Record
58%
37384-26627 (64011)
Invested
$43.54
Value
$37.94
PnL
-$1.15
Record
65%
21769-11955 (33724)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$28.6
Value
$23.99
PnL
-$4.61
Record
55%
44146-36636 (80782)
Invested
$19.4
Value
—
PnL
-$19.4
Record
55%
17309-13927 (31236)
Invested
$5.8
Value
—
PnL
-$5.8
Record
65%
124308-66488 (190796)
Invested
$5.43
Value
—
PnL
-$5.43
Record
61%
93995-59086 (153081)
Invested
$3.49
Value
—
PnL
-$3.49
Record
52%
89438-83891 (173329)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19801-18940 (38741)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.9K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.3K
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
trdyugiolkw
Up — $305.92
Bonereaper
Up — $335.43
Little-big
Up — $200.27
tmsd-test
Up — $81.38
asdaefef
Up — $66.88
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $77
aaa221
Up — $37.94