Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$7.5K
$266.27
Smart Money Signal
14 of 18 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 98¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$23.2 | 66% 98635-51024 (149659) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$24.36 | 93% 22615-1734 (24349) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 86.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$126.42 | 56% 14079-11055 (25134) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 95.2¢ | $545.35 | $547.39 | +$2.04 | 12% 18033-132824 (150857) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 81.5¢ | $255.38 | $224.35 | -$31.03 | 57% 10134-7601 (17735) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $92.63 | $184.97 | +$92.33 | 58% 37375-26622 (63997) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 27.7¢ | $318.72 | $96 | -$222.72 | 54% 15181-13088 (28269) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83¢ | $79.68 | $96 | +$16.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.7¢ | $239.04 | — | -$239.04 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $52.56 | $44.61 | +$2.53 | 65% 21722-11935 (33657) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $37.08 | $49 | +$11.92 | 55% 44030-36522 (80552) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $40.5 | $73.64 | +$33.14 | 58% 12507-9157 (21664) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $25.8 | $30 | +$4.2 | 57% 6564-4863 (11427) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $12.44 | — | -$12.44 | 58% 50799-36936 (87735) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $12.02 | $12.65 | +$0.63 | 63% 51234-30144 (81378) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $11.37 | $11 | -$0.37 | 61% 93968-59068 (153036) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $7.32 | $8.82 | +$1.5 | 57% 69881-53093 (122974) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $5.5 | — | -$4.4 | 51% 19791-18936 (38727) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 25.8¢ | $7.75 | — | -$7.75 | 55% 17284-13893 (31177) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $4 | $5.06 | +$1.06 | 66% 124478-64082 (188560) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 52% 89418-83862 (173280) |
Invested
$2,570.8
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$23.2
Record
66%
98635-51024 (149659)
Invested
$2,411.64
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$24.36
Record
93%
22615-1734 (24349)
Invested
$1,083.18
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$126.42
Record
56%
14079-11055 (25134)
Invested
$545.35
Value
$547.39
PnL
+$2.04
Record
12%
18033-132824 (150857)
Invested
$255.38
Value
$224.35
PnL
-$31.03
Record
57%
10134-7601 (17735)
Invested
$92.63
Value
$184.97
PnL
+$92.33
Record
58%
37375-26622 (63997)
Invested
$318.72
Value
$96
PnL
-$222.72
Record
54%
15181-13088 (28269)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.56
Value
$44.61
PnL
+$2.53
Record
65%
21722-11935 (33657)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$37.08
Value
$49
PnL
+$11.92
Record
55%
44030-36522 (80552)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$40.5
Value
$73.64
PnL
+$33.14
Record
58%
12507-9157 (21664)
Invested
$25.8
Value
$30
PnL
+$4.2
Record
57%
6564-4863 (11427)
Invested
$12.44
Value
—
PnL
-$12.44
Record
58%
50799-36936 (87735)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.02
Value
$12.65
PnL
+$0.63
Record
63%
51234-30144 (81378)
Invested
$11.37
Value
$11
PnL
-$0.37
Record
61%
93968-59068 (153036)
Invested
$7.32
Value
$8.82
PnL
+$1.5
Record
57%
69881-53093 (122974)
Invested
$5.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.4
Record
51%
19791-18936 (38727)
Invested
$7.75
Value
—
PnL
-$7.75
Record
55%
17284-13893 (31177)
Invested
$4
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$1.06
Record
66%
124478-64082 (188560)
Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
52%
89418-83862 (173280)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $2.6K
hoodquant
Down — $2.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
Hsilverbasher
Down — $547.39
trdyugiolkw
Down — $224.35
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $184.97
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $44.61
MayorMamdani
Down — $49
wowitsamazing
Down — $73.64