Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Up 61%
1 arb excluded
$5.4K
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 19 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 95.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$41.13 | 66% 98635-51024 (149659) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 38.1¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 54% 15181-13088 (28269) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 81.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$110.48 | 56% 14079-11055 (25134) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 66.8¢ | $866.65 | $802.03 | -$64.62 | 57% 10134-7601 (17735) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 97.9¢ | $358.27 | $362 | +$3.73 | 55% 44030-36522 (80552) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 59.2¢ | $258.14 | — | -$258.14 | 57% 69881-53093 (122974) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Upavg 46.9¢ | $246.71 | $392.76 | +$146.05 | 12% 18033-132824 (150857) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.9¢ | $184.24 | $392.76 | +$208.52 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.4¢ | $62.47 | — | -$62.47 | |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 91.3¢ | $175.11 | $162.18 | -$12.93 | 66% 124478-64082 (188560) |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 34¢ | $42.95 | $126.33 | +$83.38 | 54% 14357-12173 (26530) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 94.2¢ | $77.18 | $68.5 | -$8.68 | 61% 93968-59068 (153036) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $68.16 | $58 | -$10.16 | 52% 89418-83862 (173280) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 31.9¢ | $70.5 | — | -$65.76 | 65% 124286-66473 (190759) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.6¢ | $49.85 | $50.56 | +$0.71 | 93% 22615-1734 (24349) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $59.45 | — | -$59.45 | 55% 17284-13893 (31177) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $24.9 | — | -$24.9 | 57% 6564-4863 (11427) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $26.2 | — | -$26.2 | 65% 21722-11935 (33657) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 73% 95006-35634 (130640) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $12.99 | $24.51 | +$11.52 | 62% 43587-26530 (70117) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $9.9 | $10 | +$0.1 | 63% 51234-30144 (81378) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19791-18936 (38727) |
Invested
$1,995.29
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$41.13
Record
66%
98635-51024 (149659)
Invested
$1,533.75
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
54%
15181-13088 (28269)
Invested
$1,173.02
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$110.48
Record
56%
14079-11055 (25134)
Invested
$866.65
Value
$802.03
PnL
-$64.62
Record
57%
10134-7601 (17735)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$358.27
Value
$362
PnL
+$3.73
Record
55%
44030-36522 (80552)
Invested
$258.14
Value
—
PnL
-$258.14
Record
57%
69881-53093 (122974)
Invested
$246.71
Value
$392.76
PnL
+$146.05
Record
12%
18033-132824 (150857)
Both legs:
Invested
$175.11
Value
$162.18
PnL
-$12.93
Record
66%
124478-64082 (188560)
Invested
$42.95
Value
$126.33
PnL
+$83.38
Record
54%
14357-12173 (26530)
Invested
$77.18
Value
$68.5
PnL
-$8.68
Record
61%
93968-59068 (153036)
Invested
$68.16
Value
$58
PnL
-$10.16
Record
52%
89418-83862 (173280)
Invested
$70.5
Value
—
PnL
-$65.76
Record
65%
124286-66473 (190759)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$50.56
PnL
+$0.71
Record
93%
22615-1734 (24349)
Invested
$59.45
Value
—
PnL
-$59.45
Record
55%
17284-13893 (31177)
Invested
$24.9
Value
—
PnL
-$24.9
Record
57%
6564-4863 (11427)
Invested
$26.2
Value
—
PnL
-$26.2
Record
65%
21722-11935 (33657)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
73%
95006-35634 (130640)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$12.99
Value
$24.51
PnL
+$11.52
Record
62%
43587-26530 (70117)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$9.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.1
Record
63%
51234-30144 (81378)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19791-18936 (38727)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $2.0K
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.3K
trdyugiolkw
Up — $802.03
MayorMamdani
Up — $362
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
Hsilverbasher
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdaefef
Up — $162.18
tmsd-test
Up — $126.33
asidjasiodja
Up — $68.5