Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 92%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$74.78

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 14 top traders (86%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,629

Combined PnL+$246.56

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares270

Combined PnL-$321.34

Down — 86%Up — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 66.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$42.7	56% 14079-11055 (25134)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 53.3¢	$735.42	$748.19	+$12.77	57% 10134-7601 (17735)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.8¢	$531.25	$537.88	+$6.63	93% 22615-1734 (24349)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 33¢	$301.47	$402.49	+$101.02	12% 18033-132824 (150857)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$169.65	—	-$169.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.8¢	$131.82	$402.49	+$270.67
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 56¢	$390.18	$470.07	+$79.89	54% 15181-13088 (28269)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.4¢	$171.13	$470.07	+$298.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$219.05	—	-$219.05
TH thesidehustleCTR	Upavg 64.9¢	$321.34	—	-$321.34	54% 10444-8916 (19360)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 63.5¢	$319.63	$503.28	+$183.65	57% 69881-53093 (122974)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$265.07	$257.35	-$7.72	57% 6564-4863 (11427)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.3¢	$157.82	$257.35	+$99.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$107.25	—	-$107.25
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$187.72	$163	-$24.72	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$107.67	—	-$107.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$80.05	$163	+$82.95
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$111.73	$120	+$8.27	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.5¢	$99.02	$120	+$20.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.9¢	$12.71	—	-$12.71
TM tmsd-test<$100	Downavg 61¢	$35.38	$58	+$22.62	54% 14357-12173 (26530)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$28.28	$56.12	+$27.84	65% 21722-11935 (33657)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$40.57	$40.15	-$0.42	66% 124478-64082 (188560)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 91¢	$15.85	$17.42	+$1.57	63% 51234-30144 (81378)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$24.16	$28.78	+$4.62	61% 93968-59068 (153036)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 64.9¢	$14.37	$22.16	+$7.79	52% 89418-83862 (173280)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 34.8¢	$6.95	$20	+$13.05	55% 17284-13893 (31177)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 39¢	$5.85	$15	+$9.15	50% 7672-7689 (15361)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 77.6¢	—	—	+$0	51% 19791-18936 (38727)