Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Down 60%
3 arb excluded
$4.4K
$-4.6K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 20 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.7¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$44.4 | 93% 22557-1734 (24291) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 59.7¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 54% 15173-13075 (28248) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 86.9¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.8K | 66% 98507-50941 (149448) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Downavg 54.5¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 57% 10121-7584 (17705) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 69.4¢ | $430.72 | $620.74 | +$190.02 | 74% 102130-36312 (138442) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $536.24 | $1.0K | +$491.93 | 12% 18002-132802 (150804) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.4¢ | $248.49 | — | -$248.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28¢ | $287.74 | $1.0K | +$740.42 | |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Downavg 54.1¢ | $252.4 | — | -$252.4 | 54% 14354-12163 (26517) |
 wowitsamazingCTR | Downavg 40.6¢ | $174.15 | — | -$174.15 | 58% 12495-9150 (21645) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Upavg 86.4¢ | $225.25 | $232.64 | +$7.39 | 69% 1594-720 (2314) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $146.18 | $125.92 | -$20.25 | 57% 6553-4857 (11410) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.3¢ | $96.12 | — | -$96.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.7¢ | $50.05 | $125.92 | +$75.87 | |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 66¢ | $119.34 | — | -$119.34 | 50% 7654-7675 (15329) |
 NIULAI4ARB<$100 | Upavg 85.4¢ | $211.65 | $210 | -$1.65 | 77% 9278-2724 (12002) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85.4¢ | $179.24 | $210 | +$30.76 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.9¢ | $32.41 | — | -$32.41 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $54.58 | $80.26 | +$25.68 | 56% 57568-44448 (102016) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $48 | — | -$48 | 58% 50782-36915 (87697) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 71.2¢ | $51.52 | — | -$34.9 | 65% 21630-11888 (33518) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $83.2 | $50 | -$29.6 | 65% 124216-66433 (190649) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 82.5¢ | $62.72 | $64.18 | +$1.46 | 65% 3901-2102 (6003) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $30.01 | $42.87 | +$12.86 | 58% 60103-43871 (103974) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 77.1¢ | $40.69 | — | -$40.69 | 61% 93901-59012 (152913) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 64.7¢ | $18.6 | — | -$18.6 | 55% 17218-13857 (31075) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $9.73 | $28.05 | +$18.32 | 52% 89352-83806 (173158) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $11.88 | — | -$11.88 | 63% 51186-30116 (81302) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $5.52 | — | -$5.52 | 55% 50025-40645 (90670) |
Invested
$1,875.42
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$44.4
Record
93%
22557-1734 (24291)
Invested
$1,058.92
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
54%
15173-13075 (28248)
Invested
$1,800.82
Value
—
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
66%
98507-50941 (149448)
Invested
$1,303.41
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
57%
10121-7584 (17705)
BoneOhioInvested
$430.72
Value
$620.74
PnL
+$190.02
Record
74%
102130-36312 (138442)
Invested
$536.24
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$491.93
Record
12%
18002-132802 (150804)
Both legs:
Invested
$252.4
Value
—
PnL
-$252.4
Record
54%
14354-12163 (26517)
wowitsamazingCTRInvested
$174.15
Value
—
PnL
-$174.15
Record
58%
12495-9150 (21645)
Invested
$225.25
Value
$232.64
PnL
+$7.39
Record
69%
1594-720 (2314)
Invested
$146.18
Value
$125.92
PnL
-$20.25
Record
57%
6553-4857 (11410)
Both legs:
Invested
$119.34
Value
—
PnL
-$119.34
Record
50%
7654-7675 (15329)
NIULAI4ARB<$100Invested
$211.65
Value
$210
PnL
-$1.65
Record
77%
9278-2724 (12002)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.58
Value
$80.26
PnL
+$25.68
Record
56%
57568-44448 (102016)
Invested
$48
Value
—
PnL
-$48
Record
58%
50782-36915 (87697)
Invested
$51.52
Value
—
PnL
-$34.9
Record
65%
21630-11888 (33518)
Invested
$83.2
Value
$50
PnL
-$29.6
Record
65%
124216-66433 (190649)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$62.72
Value
$64.18
PnL
+$1.46
Record
65%
3901-2102 (6003)
Invested
$30.01
Value
$42.87
PnL
+$12.86
Record
58%
60103-43871 (103974)
Invested
$40.69
Value
—
PnL
-$40.69
Record
61%
93901-59012 (152913)
Invested
$18.6
Value
—
PnL
-$18.6
Record
55%
17218-13857 (31075)
Invested
$9.73
Value
$28.05
PnL
+$18.32
Record
52%
89352-83806 (173158)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$11.88
Value
—
PnL
-$11.88
Record
63%
51186-30116 (81302)
Invested
$5.52
Value
—
PnL
-$5.52
Record
55%
50025-40645 (90670)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.9K
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
trdyugiolkw
CTRDown — $0
BoneOhio
Up — $620.74
Hsilverbasher
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0
wowitsamazing
CTRDown — $0
asabovesobelow2
Up — $232.64
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded