Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 84%
1 arb excluded
$8.2K
$377.02
Smart Money Signal
16 of 19 top traders (84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$31.32 | 93% 22557-1734 (24291) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 97.4¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$48.78 | 66% 98507-50941 (149448) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $678.47 | $795.37 | +$116.91 | 54% 15173-13075 (28248) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 81.1¢ | $453.26 | $442.59 | -$10.67 | 57% 10121-7584 (17705) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Upavg 16.4¢ | $119.24 | $58 | -$61.24 | 12% 18002-132802 (150804) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.4¢ | $78.64 | — | -$78.64 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70¢ | $40.6 | $58 | +$17.4 | |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 48¢ | $132.65 | $170.09 | +$37.44 | 58% 50782-36915 (87697) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 70¢ | $105.06 | $150.09 | +$45.03 | 74% 102130-36312 (138442) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819 | Downavg 82¢ | $82 | $100 | +$18 | 47% 390-447 (837) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $54.1 | $75.13 | +$21.03 | 64% 39712-22672 (62384) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $45.2 | $64.57 | +$19.37 | 54% 14354-12163 (26517) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $41 | $50 | +$9 | 57% 69807-53034 (122841) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $38.25 | $74.73 | +$36.48 | 58% 12495-9150 (21645) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $35 | $50 | +$15 | 65% 124216-66433 (190649) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $21.73 | $27.31 | +$5.58 | 57% 6553-4857 (11410) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 82.4¢ | $17.98 | $18.1 | +$0.12 | 61% 93901-59012 (152913) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $12.48 | $12.61 | +$0.13 | 63% 51186-30116 (81302) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $14.85 | — | -$14.85 | 51% 19760-18914 (38674) |
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 21% 140-515 (655) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $3.3 | $5.5 | +$2.2 | 65% 21630-11888 (33518) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $1.84 | — | -$1.84 | 52% 89352-83806 (173158) |
Invested
$2,962.68
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$31.32
Record
93%
22557-1734 (24291)
Invested
$3,108.53
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$48.78
Record
66%
98507-50941 (149448)
Invested
$678.47
Value
$795.37
PnL
+$116.91
Record
54%
15173-13075 (28248)
Invested
$453.26
Value
$442.59
PnL
-$10.67
Record
57%
10121-7584 (17705)
Invested
$119.24
Value
$58
PnL
-$61.24
Record
12%
18002-132802 (150804)
Both legs:
Invested
$132.65
Value
$170.09
PnL
+$37.44
Record
58%
50782-36915 (87697)
BoneOhioInvested
$105.06
Value
$150.09
PnL
+$45.03
Record
74%
102130-36312 (138442)
Invested
$82
Value
$100
PnL
+$18
Record
47%
390-447 (837)
ohioism<$100Invested
$54.1
Value
$75.13
PnL
+$21.03
Record
64%
39712-22672 (62384)
Invested
$45.2
Value
$64.57
PnL
+$19.37
Record
54%
14354-12163 (26517)
Invested
$41
Value
$50
PnL
+$9
Record
57%
69807-53034 (122841)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$38.25
Value
$74.73
PnL
+$36.48
Record
58%
12495-9150 (21645)
Invested
$35
Value
$50
PnL
+$15
Record
65%
124216-66433 (190649)
Invested
$21.73
Value
$27.31
PnL
+$5.58
Record
57%
6553-4857 (11410)
Invested
$17.98
Value
$18.1
PnL
+$0.12
Record
61%
93901-59012 (152913)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.48
Value
$12.61
PnL
+$0.13
Record
63%
51186-30116 (81302)
Invested
$14.85
Value
—
PnL
-$14.85
Record
51%
19760-18914 (38674)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
21%
140-515 (655)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$2.2
Record
65%
21630-11888 (33518)
Invested
$1.84
Value
—
PnL
-$1.84
Record
52%
89352-83806 (173158)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $3.0K
Bonereaper
Down — $3.2K
aswfadq1555
Down — $795.37
trdyugiolkw
Down — $442.59
Hsilverbasher
ARBArbitrage — excluded
PBot-6
Down — $170.09
BoneOhio
Down — $150.09
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819
Down — $100
ohioism
Down — $75.13
tmsd-test
Down — $64.57