Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 81%
1 arb excluded
$5.0K
$37.42
Smart Money Signal
13 of 17 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 91.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$75.46 | 12% 17985-132788 (150773) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 89.6¢ | $986.9 | $1.0K | +$42.73 | 66% 98506-50940 (149446) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $742.5 | $750 | +$7.5 | 93% 22538-1732 (24270) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 74.8¢ | $604.19 | $608.27 | +$4.09 | 57% 10111-7579 (17690) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 51¢ | $300.54 | — | -$300.54 | 58% 50774-36908 (87682) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 72.1¢ | $302.4 | $419.33 | +$116.93 | 57% 69767-53019 (122786) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 76.6¢ | $162.63 | $187.49 | +$24.86 | 54% 10390-8862 (19252) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 31.5¢ | $154.06 | $75 | -$79.06 | 54% 15165-13072 (28237) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.3¢ | $45.25 | $75 | +$29.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.5¢ | $108.81 | — | -$108.81 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 70.7¢ | $42.4 | $60 | +$17.6 | 65% 21587-11860 (33447) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 45.4¢ | $33.75 | $74.4 | +$40.65 | 58% 12492-9149 (21641) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $29.99 | $37.49 | +$7.5 | 61% 93853-58992 (152845) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 65.8¢ | $32.91 | $50 | +$17.09 | 65% 124010-66298 (190308) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $28.61 | $34.05 | +$5.44 | 52% 89316-83776 (173092) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $17.1 | — | -$17.1 | 50% 7647-7671 (15318) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $9.82 | — | -$9.82 | 56% 57551-44443 (101994) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $4.91 | $7.04 | +$2.13 | 66% 111532-57780 (169312) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $5 | +$2.9 | 55% 17202-13832 (31034) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19757-18903 (38660) |
Invested
$1,572.66
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$75.46
Record
12%
17985-132788 (150773)
Invested
$986.9
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$42.73
Record
66%
98506-50940 (149446)
Invested
$742.5
Value
$750
PnL
+$7.5
Record
93%
22538-1732 (24270)
Invested
$604.19
Value
$608.27
PnL
+$4.09
Record
57%
10111-7579 (17690)
Invested
$300.54
Value
—
PnL
-$300.54
Record
58%
50774-36908 (87682)
Invested
$302.4
Value
$419.33
PnL
+$116.93
Record
57%
69767-53019 (122786)
Invested
$162.63
Value
$187.49
PnL
+$24.86
Record
54%
10390-8862 (19252)
Invested
$154.06
Value
$75
PnL
-$79.06
Record
54%
15165-13072 (28237)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.4
Value
$60
PnL
+$17.6
Record
65%
21587-11860 (33447)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$33.75
Value
$74.4
PnL
+$40.65
Record
58%
12492-9149 (21641)
Invested
$29.99
Value
$37.49
PnL
+$7.5
Record
61%
93853-58992 (152845)
Invested
$32.91
Value
$50
PnL
+$17.09
Record
65%
124010-66298 (190308)
Invested
$28.61
Value
$34.05
PnL
+$5.44
Record
52%
89316-83776 (173092)
Invested
$17.1
Value
—
PnL
-$17.1
Record
50%
7647-7671 (15318)
Invested
$9.82
Value
—
PnL
-$9.82
Record
56%
57551-44443 (101994)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$7.04
PnL
+$2.13
Record
66%
111532-57780 (169312)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.9
Record
55%
17202-13832 (31034)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19757-18903 (38660)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Hsilverbasher
Down — $1.6K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.0K
hoodquant
Down — $750
trdyugiolkw
Down — $608.27
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $419.33
thesidehustle
Down — $187.49
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $60
wowitsamazing
Down — $74.4