Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 77%
3 arb excluded
$1.6K
$179.44
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $506.2 | $543.01 | +$36.81 | 57% 10111-7579 (17690) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 86.3¢ | $468.72 | $543.01 | +$74.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 8.4¢ | $37.48 | — | -$37.48 | |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $196.38 | $335 | +$138.62 | 12% 17985-132788 (150773) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.5¢ | $179.14 | $335 | +$155.86 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14.1¢ | $17.24 | — | -$17.24 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $112.45 | $119.34 | +$6.88 | 57% 6551-4852 (11403) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.7¢ | $90.37 | $119.34 | +$28.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.2¢ | $22.08 | — | -$22.08 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 60.2¢ | $138.24 | $229.64 | +$91.4 | 57% 69767-53019 (122786) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 89.8¢ | $67.88 | $75.61 | +$7.73 | 63% 51166-30114 (81280) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $37.5 | $74.02 | +$36.52 | 58% 12492-9149 (21641) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $42.2 | $55 | +$12.8 | 65% 124010-66298 (190308) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $39.9 | $51.63 | +$11.73 | 61% 93853-58992 (152845) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $39.62 | $51.11 | +$11.49 | 58% 60094-43864 (103958) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $8.1 | — | +$0.48 | 51% 19757-18903 (38660) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $32.37 | $42.73 | +$10.36 | 52% 89316-83776 (173092) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 81.9¢ | $27.86 | $34.02 | +$6.16 | 65% 21587-11860 (33447) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 78.9¢ | $21 | $25.36 | +$4.36 | 55% 17202-13832 (31034) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $10.97 | — | -$10.97 | 56% 57551-44443 (101994) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $5.89 | — | -$5.89 | 58% 50774-36908 (87682) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $4.91 | $8.19 | +$3.28 | 66% 111532-57780 (169312) |
Invested
$506.2
Value
$543.01
PnL
+$36.81
Record
57%
10111-7579 (17690)
Both legs:
Invested
$196.38
Value
$335
PnL
+$138.62
Record
12%
17985-132788 (150773)
Both legs:
Invested
$112.45
Value
$119.34
PnL
+$6.88
Record
57%
6551-4852 (11403)
Both legs:
Invested
$138.24
Value
$229.64
PnL
+$91.4
Record
57%
69767-53019 (122786)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$67.88
Value
$75.61
PnL
+$7.73
Record
63%
51166-30114 (81280)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$37.5
Value
$74.02
PnL
+$36.52
Record
58%
12492-9149 (21641)
Invested
$42.2
Value
$55
PnL
+$12.8
Record
65%
124010-66298 (190308)
Invested
$39.9
Value
$51.63
PnL
+$11.73
Record
61%
93853-58992 (152845)
Invested
$39.62
Value
$51.11
PnL
+$11.49
Record
58%
60094-43864 (103958)
Invested
$8.1
Value
—
PnL
+$0.48
Record
51%
19757-18903 (38660)
Invested
$32.37
Value
$42.73
PnL
+$10.36
Record
52%
89316-83776 (173092)
Invested
$27.86
Value
$34.02
PnL
+$6.16
Record
65%
21587-11860 (33447)
Invested
$21
Value
$25.36
PnL
+$4.36
Record
55%
17202-13832 (31034)
Invested
$10.97
Value
—
PnL
-$10.97
Record
56%
57551-44443 (101994)
Invested
$5.89
Value
—
PnL
-$5.89
Record
58%
50774-36908 (87682)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$8.19
PnL
+$3.28
Record
66%
111532-57780 (169312)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hsilverbasher
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $229.64
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $75.61
wowitsamazing
Down — $74.02
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $55
asidjasiodja
Down — $51.63
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $51.11
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0