Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,722

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Down6 traders

Total Value$775.66

Total Shares776

Combined PnL+$272.21

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Upavg 45.2¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K	57% 10106-7577 (17683)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 47.6¢	$245.77	$418	+$172.23	12% 17971-132774 (150745)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$258.95	$232.65	-$26.3	57% 6543-4847 (11390)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.7¢	$143.98	—	-$143.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$114.96	$232.65	+$117.69
ohioismCTR	Upavg 50.9¢	$153.15	—	-$153.15	64% 39693-22664 (62357)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 78¢	$223.51	$188.99	-$34.51	54% 14345-12152 (26497)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78¢	$127.12	—	-$127.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$96.39	$188.99	+$92.61
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$155.43	$157	+$1.57	93% 22517-1732 (24249)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR	Upavg 55.4¢	$117.98	—	-$110.16	65% 124007-66294 (190301)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 83.2¢	$130.31	$94.85	-$35.46	61% 93803-58969 (152772)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$51.4	—	-$51.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.2¢	$78.91	$94.85	+$15.94
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$98.9	—	-$98.9	51% 19747-18896 (38643)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 90.5¢	$138.85	—	-$138.85	77% 9265-2721 (11986)
AA aaa221CTR	Upavg 87.1¢	$101.46	—	-$94.97	65% 21538-11836 (33374)
AS asabovesobelow2CTR	Upavg 90.5¢	$108.75	—	-$108.75	69% 1592-720 (2312)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 73.8¢	$57.12	—	-$57.12	63% 51142-30102 (81244)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$28.85	—	-$28.85	52% 89283-83737 (173020)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$57.84	$55.84	-$2	56% 57536-44436 (101972)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$54.54	—	-$30.93	58% 12488-9145 (21633)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 22¢	$17.32	$78.73	+$61.41	58% 60083-43855 (103938)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Upavg 89.4¢	$34.3	—	-$34.3	65% 3891-2098 (5989)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 41.9¢	$25.6	$61.09	+$35.49	55% 17200-13832 (31032)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$14.15	—	-$14.15	58% 50762-36893 (87655)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Upavg 21.1¢	$161.69	—	-$161.69	54% 15162-13063 (28225)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Downavg 30¢	$1.5	$5	+$3.5	73% 95001-35630 (130631)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 33.8¢	$10.15	—	-$10.15	50% 7643-7662 (15305)