Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$139.21

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 16 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,495

Combined PnL+$97.15

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares314

Combined PnL-$236.36

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.76	93% 22483-1729 (24212)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 43.3¢	$1.0K	$848.02	-$182.41	12% 17934-132761 (150695)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.9¢	$448.26	$848.02	+$399.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.3¢	$582.17	—	-$582.17
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 56.6¢	$609.88	$599.58	-$10.31	57% 10093-7573 (17666)
Atomforge	Downavg 83.2¢	$225.44	$267.65	+$42.21	65% 3877-2090 (5967)
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$183.16	$174.65	-$8.51	64% 39676-22644 (62320)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$79.57	$174.65	+$95.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.3¢	$103.59	—	-$103.59
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$133.2	$160	+$26.8	57% 69604-52928 (122532)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.5¢	$90.4	$160	+$69.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.8¢	$42.8	—	-$42.8
BoneOhioCTR	Upavg 69.7¢	$231.18	—	-$231.18	74% 102096-36299 (138395)
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 83.2¢	$112.5	$133.7	+$21.2	69% 1589-717 (2306)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$69.32	$71.35	+$2.03	66% 124340-64008 (188348)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$37.34	$64.99	+$27.64	50% 7625-7648 (15273)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$40.18	$36.51	-$3.67	61% 93726-58934 (152660)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 62.3¢	$37.75	$34.61	-$3.14	52% 89215-83682 (172897)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 76.6¢	$31.22	$30.59	-$0.63	62% 43555-26484 (70039)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 70.5¢	$14.84	$20	+$5.16	55% 43943-36416 (80359)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$49.96	$17.92	-$11.01	65% 21441-11773 (33214)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Downavg 51¢	$10.2	$20	+$9.8	73% 94998-35627 (130625)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 87¢	$11.55	$13.28	+$1.73	63% 51064-30076 (81140)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$5.18	—	-$5.18	54% 14340-12139 (26479)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 51¢	$4.55	$8.92	+$4.37	66% 111454-57709 (169163)