Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$832.36

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 29 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares6,897

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,045

Combined PnL-$416.66

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWG	Downavg 69.4¢	$2.3K	$3.4K	+$1.0K	50% 7616-7631 (15247)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$1.1K	$985.89	-$136.06	68% 98678-46986 (145664)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.7¢	$676.98	$985.89	+$308.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.6¢	$444.97	—	-$444.97
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$15.54	93% 22430-1725 (24155)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 66.2¢	$959.63	$858.24	-$101.39	57% 10080-7560 (17640)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 47.7¢	$577.64	$699.35	+$121.71	57% 69319-52768 (122087)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 79.4¢	$214.44	$153.28	-$61.16	58% 60038-43826 (103864)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.4¢	$121.72	$153.28	+$31.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.6¢	$92.72	—	-$92.72
AS asdaefef	Downavg 79¢	$176.94	$152.6	-$24.34	66% 124265-63963 (188228)
AD adururu	Downavg 68.7¢	$165.87	$241.3	+$75.43	54% 353-303 (656)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100	Upavg 24.2¢	$87.17	—	-$87.17	73% 94981-35619 (130600)
BE berlinskies	Downavg 51¢	$90.1	$176.67	+$86.57	58% 5747-4218 (9965)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 52.4¢	$86.97	—	-$86.97	12% 17911-132734 (150645)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 92.9¢	$70.04	$71.44	+$1.4	63% 50924-30036 (80960)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 61¢	$79.79	$66	-$13.79	57% 7485-5749 (13234)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 46.9¢	$47.07	—	-$47.07	56% 57485-44407 (101892)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$47.49	—	-$47.49	74% 102066-36293 (138359)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a<$100	Downavg 70¢	$27.76	$33.7	+$5.94	52% 1970-1785 (3755)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$30.57	$61.33	+$30.76	57% 1306-967 (2273)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100	Upavg 25.2¢	$27.24	—	-$27.24	46% 384-442 (826)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 38.6¢	$67	—	-$39	58% 12480-9143 (21623)
JO JocJo<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$30.11	$38.19	+$8.08	51% 931-893 (1824)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$21.07	$21.23	+$0.16	61% 93655-58890 (152545)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$24.27	$35.35	+$11.08	64% 39652-22624 (62276)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 28.9¢	$24.84	—	-$24.84	54% 14332-12131 (26463)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 70¢	$23.67	$29.6	+$5.93	65% 3868-2085 (5953)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 40.4¢	$17.25	—	-$17.25	55% 43897-36336 (80233)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$2,344.27

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

7616-7631 (15247)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,121.95

Value

$985.89

PnL

-$136.06

Record

68%

98678-46986 (145664)

Both legs:

Down$676.9868.7¢+$308.91

Up$444.9740.6¢-$444.97

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,004.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$15.54

Record

93%

22430-1725 (24155)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$959.63

Value

$858.24

PnL

-$101.39

Record

57%

10080-7560 (17640)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$577.64

Value

$699.35

PnL

+$121.71

Record

57%

69319-52768 (122087)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$214.44

Value

$153.28

PnL

-$61.16

Record

58%

60038-43826 (103864)

Both legs:

Down$121.7279.4¢+$31.56

Up$92.7247.6¢-$92.72

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$176.94

Value

$152.6

PnL

-$24.34

Record

66%

124265-63963 (188228)

adururu

Down

Invested

$165.87

Value

$241.3

PnL

+$75.43

Record

54%

353-303 (656)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100

Invested

$87.17

Value

—

PnL

-$87.17

Record

73%

94981-35619 (130600)

berlinskies

Down

Invested

$90.1

Value

$176.67

PnL

+$86.57

Record

58%

5747-4218 (9965)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$86.97

Value

—

PnL

-$86.97

Record

12%

17911-132734 (150645)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$70.04

Value

$71.44

PnL

+$1.4

Record

63%

50924-30036 (80960)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$79.79

Value

$66

PnL

-$13.79

Record

57%

7485-5749 (13234)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$47.07

Value

—

PnL

-$47.07

Record

56%

57485-44407 (101892)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$47.49

Value

—

PnL

-$47.49

Record

74%

102066-36293 (138359)

0xdc27...afdd9a<$100

Down

Invested

$27.76

Value

$33.7

PnL

+$5.94

Record

52%

1970-1785 (3755)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100

Down

Invested

$30.57

Value

$61.33

PnL

+$30.76

Record

57%

1306-967 (2273)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100

Invested

$27.24

Value

—

PnL

-$27.24

Record

46%

384-442 (826)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$67

Value

—

PnL

-$39

Record

58%

12480-9143 (21623)

JocJo<$100

Down

Invested

$30.11

Value

$38.19

PnL

+$8.08

Record

51%

931-893 (1824)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$21.07

Value

$21.23

PnL

+$0.16

Record

61%

93655-58890 (152545)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$24.27

Value

$35.35

PnL

+$11.08

Record

64%

39652-22624 (62276)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$24.84

Value

—

PnL

-$24.84

Record

54%

14332-12131 (26463)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$23.67

Value

$29.6

PnL

+$5.93

Record

65%

3868-2085 (5953)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$17.25

Value

—

PnL

-$17.25

Record

55%

43897-36336 (80233)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 29 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb5266528...72d020

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793164500

Traders in this Market

RLWG

Down — $3.4K

+$1.0K

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$136.06

hoodquant

Down — $1.0K

+$15.54

trdyugiolkw

Down — $858.24

-$101.39

uninformedfloww

Down — $699.35

+$121.71

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$61.16

asdaefef

Down — $152.6

-$24.34

adururu

Down — $241.3

+$75.43

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

CTR

Up — $0

-$87.17

berlinskies

Down — $176.67

+$86.57

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