Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$375.89
Smart Money Signal
12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 79.9¢ | $731.06 | $915.1 | +$184.04 | 54% 14332-12131 (26463) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $197 | $157.88 | -$39.12 | 57% 7485-5749 (13234) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85¢ | $134.18 | $157.88 | +$23.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.8¢ | $62.82 | — | -$62.82 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 62.8¢ | $224.66 | $358 | +$133.34 | 57% 69319-52768 (122087) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 70¢ | $94.49 | $134.98 | +$40.49 | 56% 57485-44407 (101892) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 84.4¢ | $62.79 | $66.85 | +$4.06 | 66% 124265-63963 (188228) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 81.2¢ | $51.33 | $38 | +$7.81 | 65% 21160-11608 (32768) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 78.9¢ | $32.92 | $37.29 | +$4.37 | 61% 93655-58890 (152545) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $27.37 | $32.21 | +$4.84 | 63% 50924-30036 (80960) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 80.9¢ | $22.6 | $22 | -$0.6 | 55% 43897-36336 (80233) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $19.29 | $25.05 | +$5.76 | 64% 39652-22624 (62276) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $20.11 | $13.66 | -$6.45 | 52% 89153-83609 (172762) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $10.35 | $15 | +$4.65 | 74% 102066-36293 (138359) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $6.51 | $6.58 | +$0.07 | 93% 22430-1725 (24155) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.7¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 50% 7616-7631 (15247) |
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 21% 139-512 (651) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 58% 60038-43826 (103864) |
Invested
$731.06
Value
$915.1
PnL
+$184.04
Record
54%
14332-12131 (26463)
Invested
$197
Value
$157.88
PnL
-$39.12
Record
57%
7485-5749 (13234)
Both legs:
Invested
$224.66
Value
$358
PnL
+$133.34
Record
57%
69319-52768 (122087)
Invested
$94.49
Value
$134.98
PnL
+$40.49
Record
56%
57485-44407 (101892)
Invested
$62.79
Value
$66.85
PnL
+$4.06
Record
66%
124265-63963 (188228)
Invested
$51.33
Value
$38
PnL
+$7.81
Record
65%
21160-11608 (32768)
Invested
$32.92
Value
$37.29
PnL
+$4.37
Record
61%
93655-58890 (152545)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$27.37
Value
$32.21
PnL
+$4.84
Record
63%
50924-30036 (80960)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$22.6
Value
$22
PnL
-$0.6
Record
55%
43897-36336 (80233)
ohioism<$100Invested
$19.29
Value
$25.05
PnL
+$5.76
Record
64%
39652-22624 (62276)
Invested
$20.11
Value
$13.66
PnL
-$6.45
Record
52%
89153-83609 (172762)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$10.35
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.65
Record
74%
102066-36293 (138359)
Invested
$6.51
Value
$6.58
PnL
+$0.07
Record
93%
22430-1725 (24155)
Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
50%
7616-7631 (15247)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
21%
139-512 (651)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
58%
60038-43826 (103864)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
tmsd-test
Down — $915.1
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $358
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $134.98
asdaefef
Down — $66.85
aaa221
Down — $38
asidjasiodja
Down — $37.29
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $32.21
MayorMamdani
Down — $22
ohioism
Down — $25.05