Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 38%
3 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$218.04
Smart Money Signal
8 of 22 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $794.7 | $803.12 | +$8.42 | 93% 22430-1725 (24155) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 72.4¢ | $740.17 | $624.35 | -$115.82 | 57% 10080-7560 (17640) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 52.2¢ | $180.34 | $341.29 | +$160.95 | 54% 14332-12131 (26463) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Downavg 56.8¢ | $115.52 | $113.76 | -$1.75 | 66% 124265-63963 (188228) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.8¢ | $64.67 | $113.76 | +$49.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.9¢ | $50.85 | — | -$50.85 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 70.4¢ | $103.13 | $83.91 | -$19.22 | 57% 6528-4838 (11366) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.4¢ | $59.07 | $83.91 | +$24.84 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.2¢ | $44.06 | — | -$44.06 | |
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100 | Upavg 36.8¢ | $57.93 | $38.99 | -$18.94 | 61% 93655-58890 (152545) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.8¢ | $32.74 | — | -$32.74 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.6¢ | $25.19 | $38.99 | +$13.8 | |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $43 | $57.14 | +$14.14 | 73% 94981-35619 (130600) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Downavg 87.7¢ | $48.23 | $55 | +$6.77 | 77% 9247-2703 (11950) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.3¢ | $52.64 | — | -$52.64 | 57% 7485-5749 (13234) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $61.95 | — | -$61.95 | 57% 69319-52768 (122087) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $20.43 | $40.35 | +$19.92 | 64% 39652-22624 (62276) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.1¢ | $34.15 | — | -$34.15 | 65% 3868-2085 (5953) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $41.5 | $38.29 | -$3.21 | 69% 1587-715 (2302) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 59.3¢ | $28.98 | — | -$28.98 | 66% 111403-57662 (169065) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $33.04 | — | -$19.92 | 65% 21160-11608 (32768) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $37.09 | — | -$37.09 | 58% 60038-43826 (103864) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 37.5¢ | $39.34 | — | -$39.34 | 50% 7616-7631 (15247) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $12.37 | $14.06 | +$1.69 | 63% 50924-30036 (80960) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.7¢ | $14.62 | — | -$14.62 | 58% 50724-36860 (87584) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 74% 102066-36293 (138359) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.8¢ | $10.45 | — | -$10.45 | 56% 57485-44407 (101892) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $6.9 | — | -$6.9 | 52% 89153-83609 (172762) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.5¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 55% 43897-36336 (80233) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $0.9 | — | -$0.9 | 62% 43544-26468 (70012) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $26 | — | +$3.23 | 58% 12480-9143 (21623) |
Invested
$794.7
Value
$803.12
PnL
+$8.42
Record
93%
22430-1725 (24155)
Invested
$740.17
Value
$624.35
PnL
-$115.82
Record
57%
10080-7560 (17640)
Invested
$180.34
Value
$341.29
PnL
+$160.95
Record
54%
14332-12131 (26463)
Invested
$115.52
Value
$113.76
PnL
-$1.75
Record
66%
124265-63963 (188228)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.13
Value
$83.91
PnL
-$19.22
Record
57%
6528-4838 (11366)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.93
Value
$38.99
PnL
-$18.94
Record
61%
93655-58890 (152545)
Both legs:
Invested
$43
Value
$57.14
PnL
+$14.14
Record
73%
94981-35619 (130600)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$48.23
Value
$55
PnL
+$6.77
Record
77%
9247-2703 (11950)
Invested
$52.64
Value
—
PnL
-$52.64
Record
57%
7485-5749 (13234)
Invested
$61.95
Value
—
PnL
-$61.95
Record
57%
69319-52768 (122087)
ohioism<$100Invested
$20.43
Value
$40.35
PnL
+$19.92
Record
64%
39652-22624 (62276)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$34.15
Value
—
PnL
-$34.15
Record
65%
3868-2085 (5953)
Invested
$41.5
Value
$38.29
PnL
-$3.21
Record
69%
1587-715 (2302)
Invested
$28.98
Value
—
PnL
-$28.98
Record
66%
111403-57662 (169065)
Invested
$33.04
Value
—
PnL
-$19.92
Record
65%
21160-11608 (32768)
Invested
$37.09
Value
—
PnL
-$37.09
Record
58%
60038-43826 (103864)
Invested
$39.34
Value
—
PnL
-$39.34
Record
50%
7616-7631 (15247)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.37
Value
$14.06
PnL
+$1.69
Record
63%
50924-30036 (80960)
Invested
$14.62
Value
—
PnL
-$14.62
Record
58%
50724-36860 (87584)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
74%
102066-36293 (138359)
Invested
$10.45
Value
—
PnL
-$10.45
Record
56%
57485-44407 (101892)
Invested
$6.9
Value
—
PnL
-$6.9
Record
52%
89153-83609 (172762)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
55%
43897-36336 (80233)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.9
Record
62%
43544-26468 (70012)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$26
Value
—
PnL
+$3.23
Record
58%
12480-9143 (21623)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $803.12
trdyugiolkw
Down — $624.35
tmsd-test
Down — $341.29
asdaefef
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asidjasiodja
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
Down — $57.14
NIULAI4
Down — $55
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0