Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 22 top traders (68%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,407

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,083

Combined PnL-$427.84

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWG	Downavg 56.3¢	$1.9K	$3.2K	+$1.3K	50% 7616-7631 (15247)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 68.6¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$31.94	57% 10080-7560 (17640)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.3¢	$416.99	—	-$416.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.6¢	$842.2	$1.2K	+$385.04
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.31	59% 61913-42908 (104821)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$541.53	$559.14	+$17.61	57% 7485-5749 (13234)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.1¢	$431.2	$559.14	+$127.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.9¢	$110.34	—	-$110.34
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$476.91	$429.9	-$47.01	57% 69319-52768 (122087)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.6¢	$337.71	$429.9	+$92.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$139.2	—	-$139.2
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 66.6¢	$338.2	$465.05	+$126.85	54% 14332-12131 (26463)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR	Upavg 41.1¢	$201.39	—	-$201.39	46% 384-442 (826)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 56¢	$219.46	$391.9	+$172.44	52% 1970-1785 (3755)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$163.37	$165.31	+$1.94	57% 6528-4838 (11366)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.1¢	$59	—	-$59
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$104.37	$165.31	+$60.94
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 76.1¢	$164.5	$186.31	+$21.81	69% 1587-715 (2302)
ohioismCTR	Upavg 44.1¢	$101.41	—	-$101.41	64% 39652-22624 (62276)
NIULAI4	Downavg 82.1¢	$175.08	$204.52	+$29.44	77% 9247-2703 (11950)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Downavg 82.5¢	$153.63	$159	+$5.37	73% 94981-35619 (130600)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 73¢	$129.46	$74.81	-$54.65	66% 124265-63963 (188228)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73¢	$83.8	—	-$83.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$45.66	$74.81	+$29.15
Bossgirl	Downavg 54¢	$102.6	$190	+$87.4	54% 4592-3917 (8509)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 11.9¢	$18.04	—	-$18.04	62% 43544-26468 (70012)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$56.88	—	-$56.88	52% 89153-83609 (172762)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$71.91	$52.69	-$19.22	65% 3868-2085 (5953)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$30.75	—	-$30.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.1¢	$41.16	$52.69	+$11.53
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$42.89	—	-$42.89	74% 102066-36293 (138359)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 84¢	$66.73	$53.1	-$13.63	61% 93655-58890 (152545)
JO JocJo<$100	Downavg 56.6¢	$47.54	$84.01	+$36.47	51% 931-893 (1824)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 96.9¢	$67.28	$50.26	-$15.61	65% 21160-11608 (32768)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 69.3¢	$17.95	$15	-$2.95	55% 43897-36336 (80233)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 57¢	$14.44	$23.67	+$9.23	56% 57485-44407 (101892)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$16.14	$16.77	+$0.63	66% 111403-57662 (169065)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$1,915.05

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

7616-7631 (15247)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,259.18

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$31.94

Record

57%

10080-7560 (17640)

Both legs:

Up$416.9932.3¢-$416.99

Down$842.268.6¢+$385.04

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,311.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.31

Record

59%

61913-42908 (104821)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$541.53

Value

$559.14

PnL

+$17.61

Record

57%

7485-5749 (13234)

Both legs:

Down$431.277.1¢+$127.94

Up$110.3431.9¢-$110.34

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$476.91

Value

$429.9

PnL

-$47.01

Record

57%

69319-52768 (122087)

Both legs:

Down$337.7178.6¢+$92.19

Up$139.256.2¢-$139.2

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$338.2

Value

$465.05

PnL

+$126.85

Record

54%

14332-12131 (26463)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR

Invested

$201.39

Value

—

PnL

-$201.39

Record

46%

384-442 (826)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$219.46

Value

$391.9

PnL

+$172.44

Record

52%

1970-1785 (3755)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$163.37

Value

$165.31

PnL

+$1.94

Record

57%

6528-4838 (11366)

Both legs:

Up$5934.1¢-$59

Down$104.3763.1¢+$60.94

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$164.5

Value

$186.31

PnL

+$21.81

Record

69%

1587-715 (2302)

ohioismCTR

Invested

$101.41

Value

—

PnL

-$101.41

Record

64%

39652-22624 (62276)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$175.08

Value

$204.52

PnL

+$29.44

Record

77%

9247-2703 (11950)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down

Invested

$153.63

Value

$159

PnL

+$5.37

Record

73%

94981-35619 (130600)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$129.46

Value

$74.81

PnL

-$54.65

Record

66%

124265-63963 (188228)

Both legs:

Invested

$102.6

Value

$190

PnL

+$87.4

Record

54%

4592-3917 (8509)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$18.04

Value

—

PnL

-$18.04

Record

62%

43544-26468 (70012)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$56.88

Value

—

PnL

-$56.88

Record

52%

89153-83609 (172762)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$71.91

Value

$52.69

PnL

-$19.22

Record

65%

3868-2085 (5953)

Both legs:

Up$30.7546.1¢-$30.75

Down$41.1678.1¢+$11.53

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$42.89

Value

—

PnL

-$42.89

Record

74%

102066-36293 (138359)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$66.73

Value

$53.1

PnL

-$13.63

Record

61%

93655-58890 (152545)

JocJo<$100

Down

Invested

$47.54

Value

$84.01

PnL

+$36.47

Record

51%

931-893 (1824)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$67.28

Value

$50.26

PnL

-$15.61

Record

65%

21160-11608 (32768)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$17.95

Value

$15

PnL

-$2.95

Record

55%

43897-36336 (80233)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$14.44

Value

$23.67

PnL

+$9.23

Record

56%

57485-44407 (101892)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$16.14

Value

$16.77

PnL

+$0.63

Record

66%

111403-57662 (169065)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 22 top traders (68%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x80f27933...250780

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793160900

Traders in this Market

RLWG

Down — $3.2K

+$1.3K

trdyugiolkw

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$31.94

0x50f7

Down — $1.3K

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

tmsd-test

Down — $465.05

+$126.85

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

CTR

Up — $0

-$201.39

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $391.9

+$172.44

peepeepoopoo24

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$1.94

asabovesobelow2

Down — $186.31

+$21.81

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