Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.1K

Combined PnL

$16.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 33 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$41.6K

Total Shares41,608

Combined PnL+$17.2K

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,378

Combined PnL-$728.53

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 47.2¢	$8.4K	$17.7K	+$9.4K	53% 315-279 (594)
BE berlinskies	Downavg 63.7¢	$2.7K	$4.2K	+$1.5K	58% 5743-4217 (9960)
RL RLWG	Downavg 55.4¢	$2.5K	$4.5K	+$2.0K	50% 7607-7627 (15234)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Downavg 56.9¢	$1.5K	$2.7K	+$1.2K	57% 1303-965 (2268)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 52.7¢	$1.4K	$2.4K	+$1.0K	81% 162-38 (200)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.86	93% 22411-1723 (24134)
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e	Downavg 55.8¢	$1.4K	$2.5K	+$1.1K	54% 1586-1367 (2953)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 93¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$770.76	68% 98660-46970 (145630)
JO JocJo	Downavg 52.6¢	$563.72	$1.1K	+$508.75	51% 928-892 (1820)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 50.4¢	$746.3	$1.5K	+$735.55	52% 1967-1783 (3750)
HE hello.67	Downavg 55.2¢	$443.3	$802.78	+$359.48	50% 1642-1626 (3268)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 57.6¢	$369.4	$283.18	-$86.22	57% 10065-7554 (17619)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.6¢	$249.42	—	-$249.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$119.98	$283.18	+$163.2
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR	Upavg 45.9¢	$178.64	—	-$178.64	73% 94980-35618 (130598)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 77.5¢	$156.63	$202.22	+$45.59	56% 57474-44398 (101872)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Upavg 50.8¢	$450.31	—	-$450.31	54% 15143-13047 (28190)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 73.7¢	$170.77	$146.56	-$24.2	55% 43879-36307 (80186)
Bossgirl	Downavg 54.7¢	$122.53	$224	+$101.47	54% 4591-3917 (8508)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$90.69	$115.71	+$25.01	57% 7475-5735 (13210)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.1¢	$63.78	$115.71	+$51.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.3¢	$26.92	—	-$26.92
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 62.3¢	$289.49	$80	-$209.49	57% 69318-52757 (122075)
└ Down leg	Downavg 88¢	$70.4	$80	+$9.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.3¢	$219.09	—	-$219.09
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$98.55	—	-$98.55	54% 14330-12129 (26459)
ohioism	Downavg 78.8¢	$99.36	$126.08	+$26.72	64% 39642-22617 (62259)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 86.6¢	$102.19	$89.99	-$12.2	57% 6524-4833 (11357)
AA aaa221	Downavg 60.8¢	$182.22	$54.21	+$20.35	65% 21119-11585 (32704)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 97¢	$59.34	$49.15	-$10.19	63% 50900-30030 (80930)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$38.66	$41.84	+$3.18	66% 124228-63947 (188175)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$8,359.34

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$9.4K

Record

53%

315-279 (594)

berlinskies

Down

Invested

$2,698.64

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

58%

5743-4217 (9960)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$2,499.99

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

7607-7627 (15234)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Down

Invested

$1,526.91

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

57%

1303-965 (2268)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$1,380.17

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

81%

162-38 (200)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,788.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.86

Record

93%

22411-1723 (24134)

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e

Down

Invested

$1,403.33

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

1586-1367 (2953)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,080.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$770.76

Record

68%

98660-46970 (145630)

JocJo

Down

Invested

$563.72

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$508.75

Record

51%

928-892 (1820)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$746.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$735.55

Record

52%

1967-1783 (3750)

hello.67

Down

Invested

$443.3

Value

$802.78

PnL

+$359.48

Record

50%

1642-1626 (3268)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$369.4

Value

$283.18

PnL

-$86.22

Record

57%

10065-7554 (17619)

Both legs:

Up$249.4257.6¢-$249.42

Down$119.9842.4¢+$163.2

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR

Invested

$178.64

Value

—

PnL

-$178.64

Record

73%

94980-35618 (130598)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$156.63

Value

$202.22

PnL

+$45.59

Record

56%

57474-44398 (101872)

aswfadq1555CTR

Invested

$450.31

Value

—

PnL

-$450.31

Record

54%

15143-13047 (28190)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$170.77

Value

$146.56

PnL

-$24.2

Record

55%

43879-36307 (80186)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$122.53

Value

$224

PnL

+$101.47

Record

54%

4591-3917 (8508)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$90.69

Value

$115.71

PnL

+$25.01

Record

57%

7475-5735 (13210)

Both legs:

Down$63.7855.1¢+$51.93

Up$26.9229.3¢-$26.92

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$289.49

Value

$80

PnL

-$209.49

Record

57%

69318-52757 (122075)

Both legs:

Down$70.488¢+$9.6

Up$219.0962.3¢-$219.09

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$98.55

Value

—

PnL

-$98.55

Record

54%

14330-12129 (26459)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$99.36

Value

$126.08

PnL

+$26.72

Record

64%

39642-22617 (62259)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$102.19

Value

$89.99

PnL

-$12.2

Record

57%

6524-4833 (11357)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$182.22

Value

$54.21

PnL

+$20.35

Record

65%

21119-11585 (32704)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$59.34

Value

$49.15

PnL

-$10.19

Record

63%

50900-30030 (80930)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$38.66

Value

$41.84

PnL

+$3.18

Record

66%

124228-63947 (188175)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 33 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9a24449a...0602f7

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793160000

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $17.7K

+$9.4K

berlinskies

Down — $4.2K

+$1.5K

RLWG

Down — $4.5K

+$2.0K

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Down — $2.7K

+$1.2K

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $2.4K

+$1.0K

hoodquant

Down — $1.8K

+$18.86

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e

Down — $2.5K

+$1.1K

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $1.3K

-$770.76

JocJo

Down — $1.1K

+$508.75

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $1.5K

+$735.55

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