Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,562

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares785

Combined PnL-$196.87

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWG	Upavg 48.2¢	$2.0K	$3.2K	+$1.1K	50% 7602-7622 (15224)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 40.7¢	$1.4K	$959.49	-$434.59	54% 15135-13044 (28179)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.6¢	$687.15	$959.49	+$272.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$706.93	—	-$706.93
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Upavg 59.8¢	$638.6	$883.66	+$245.06	57% 1303-964 (2267)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$606.43	$483.35	-$123.08	57% 10059-7541 (17600)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$403.46	—	-$403.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$202.97	$483.35	+$280.38
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$591.1	$597.07	+$5.97	74% 102029-36289 (138318)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 60.8¢	$530.3	$499.58	-$30.72	52% 1965-1781 (3746)
Bossgirl	Upavg 61.7¢	$413.42	$482	+$68.58	54% 4591-3916 (8507)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 72.4¢	$314.9	$305.36	-$9.55	57% 7465-5727 (13192)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Upavg 80.8¢	$208.69	$247	+$38.31	73% 94979-35615 (130594)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$166.32	$168	+$1.68	93% 22393-1721 (24114)
JO JocJo	Upavg 66.2¢	$174.84	$176.43	+$1.59	51% 927-890 (1817)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 82.9¢	$162.55	$159	-$3.54	57% 6519-4829 (11348)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 84.5¢	$152.1	$180	+$27.9	81% 160-37 (197)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 53.1¢	$114.58	$205.69	+$91.11	12% 17900-132721 (150621)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 65.9¢	$104.19	$86.35	-$17.84	62% 43532-26459 (69991)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.9¢	$56.86	$86.35	+$29.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$47.33	—	-$47.33
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 91.3¢	$211.89	$102.48	-$15.07	65% 123904-66250 (190154)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$304.83	$50.55	-$254.28	58% 60017-43815 (103832)
└ Up leg	Upavg 91¢	$46.01	$50.55	+$4.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$258.82	—	-$258.82
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 21.3¢	$182.95	$34.4	-$148.55	64% 39631-22613 (62244)
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.3¢	$152.14	—	-$152.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.6¢	$30.81	$34.4	+$3.59
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 87.1¢	$76.26	$62.54	-$13.72	66% 124187-63928 (188115)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.1¢	$54.47	$62.54	+$8.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.9¢	$21.79	—	-$21.79
wowitsamazing	Upavg 49.7¢	$118.29	$138.96	+$83.19	58% 12473-9135 (21608)
AA aaa221	Upavg 66¢	$127.27	$60	-$16.87	65% 21073-11552 (32625)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$110.23	$27.01	-$83.22	55% 43850-36279 (80129)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$88.62	—	-$88.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 80¢	$21.61	$27.01	+$5.4
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$34.63	—	-$34.63	58% 50713-36842 (87555)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819	Upavg 36¢	$36	$100	+$64	47% 381-436 (817)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 18.4¢	$74.7	—	-$74.7	56% 57463-44387 (101850)

RLWG

Invested

$2,043.96

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

7602-7622 (15224)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,394.08

Value

$959.49

PnL

-$434.59

Record

54%

15135-13044 (28179)

Both legs:

Up$687.1571.6¢+$272.34

Down$706.9340.7¢-$706.93

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Invested

$638.6

Value

$883.66

PnL

+$245.06

Record

57%

1303-964 (2267)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$606.43

Value

$483.35

PnL

-$123.08

Record

57%

10059-7541 (17600)

Both legs:

Down$403.4659.9¢-$403.46

Up$202.9742¢+$280.38

BoneOhio

Invested

$591.1

Value

$597.07

PnL

+$5.97

Record

74%

102029-36289 (138318)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$530.3

Value

$499.58

PnL

-$30.72

Record

52%

1965-1781 (3746)

Bossgirl

Invested

$413.42

Value

$482

PnL

+$68.58

Record

54%

4591-3916 (8507)

wzbbb

Invested

$314.9

Value

$305.36

PnL

-$9.55

Record

57%

7465-5727 (13192)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Invested

$208.69

Value

$247

PnL

+$38.31

Record

73%

94979-35615 (130594)

hoodquant

Invested

$166.32

Value

$168

PnL

+$1.68

Record

93%

22393-1721 (24114)

JocJo

Invested

$174.84

Value

$176.43

PnL

+$1.59

Record

51%

927-890 (1817)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$162.55

Value

$159

PnL

-$3.54

Record

57%

6519-4829 (11348)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$152.1

Value

$180

PnL

+$27.9

Record

81%

160-37 (197)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$114.58

Value

$205.69

PnL

+$91.11

Record

12%

17900-132721 (150621)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$104.19

Value

$86.35

PnL

-$17.84

Record

62%

43532-26459 (69991)

Both legs:

Up$56.8665.9¢+$29.49

Down$47.3328¢-$47.33

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$211.89

Value

$102.48

PnL

-$15.07

Record

65%

123904-66250 (190154)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$304.83

Value

$50.55

PnL

-$254.28

Record

58%

60017-43815 (103832)

Both legs:

Up$46.0191¢+$4.54

Down$258.8246.7¢-$258.82

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$182.95

Value

$34.4

PnL

-$148.55

Record

64%

39631-22613 (62244)

Both legs:

Down$152.1421.3¢-$152.14

Up$30.8189.6¢+$3.59

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$76.26

Value

$62.54

PnL

-$13.72

Record

66%

124187-63928 (188115)

Both legs:

Up$54.4787.1¢+$8.07

Down$21.7917.9¢-$21.79

wowitsamazing

Invested

$118.29

Value

$138.96

PnL

+$83.19

Record

58%

12473-9135 (21608)

aaa221

Invested

$127.27

Value

$60

PnL

-$16.87

Record

65%

21073-11552 (32625)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$110.23

Value

$27.01

PnL

-$83.22

Record

55%

43850-36279 (80129)

Both legs:

Down$88.6267.7¢-$88.62

Up$21.6180¢+$5.4

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.63

Value

—

PnL

-$34.63

Record

58%

50713-36842 (87555)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Invested

$36

Value

$100

PnL

+$64

Record

47%

381-436 (817)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$74.7

Value

—

PnL

-$74.7

Record

56%

57463-44387 (101850)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9f5fd826...5fa27f

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793151900

Traders in this Market

RLWG

Up — $3.2K

+$1.1K

aswfadq1555

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$434.59

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Up — $883.66

+$245.06

trdyugiolkw

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$123.08

BoneOhio

Up — $597.07

+$5.97

0xdc27...afdd9a

Up — $499.58

-$30.72

Bossgirl

Up — $482

+$68.58

wzbbb

Up — $305.36

-$9.55

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Up — $247

+$38.31

hoodquant

Up — $168

+$1.68

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