Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 76%
1 arb excluded
$4.8K
$188.18
Smart Money Signal
16 of 22 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 97.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$38.88 | 81% 159-37 (196) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 64.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$48.08 | 57% 10052-7532 (17584) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $501.83 | $506.9 | +$5.07 | 93% 22362-1721 (24083) |
RL RLWG | Downavg 57.2¢ | $256.17 | $448 | +$191.83 | 50% 7594-7617 (15211) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 88.4¢ | $243.25 | $196 | -$47.25 | 57% 7452-5716 (13168) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 95¢ | $172.81 | $182 | +$9.19 | 77% 9234-2693 (11927) |
DV dvasdkasodk | Downavg 81.1¢ | $118.6 | $122.65 | +$4.05 | 52% 89056-83535 (172591) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $80.52 | $97.12 | +$16.59 | 57% 6515-4824 (11339) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Downavg 96.5¢ | $81.25 | $84.19 | +$2.94 | 69% 1580-712 (2292) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $56.61 | $107.73 | +$51.12 | 54% 15128-13039 (28167) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $70.5 | — | -$70.5 | 73% 94979-35612 (130591) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $66.79 | $99.33 | +$32.54 | 55% 43829-36245 (80074) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51¢ | $50.67 | $99.33 | +$48.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52¢ | $16.12 | — | -$16.12 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $36.42 | $54.85 | +$18.43 | 66% 124150-63912 (188062) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $50.25 | $91.37 | +$41.12 | 74% 102021-36286 (138307) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 57.9¢ | $24.95 | $43.12 | +$18.17 | 61% 93558-58834 (152392) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $92.07 | — | -$92.07 | 64% 39626-22607 (62233) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $62.32 | — | -$50.48 | 65% 123874-66232 (190106) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 95.7¢ | $21.56 | $22.53 | +$0.97 | 65% 3853-2077 (5930) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 53.9¢ | $21.72 | $40.3 | +$18.58 | 58% 60004-43803 (103807) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 45.2¢ | $16.66 | — | -$16.66 | 54% 14320-12113 (26433) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $3.33 | $8.33 | +$5 | 56% 57449-44380 (101829) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $2.11 | — | -$2.11 | 63% 50847-30010 (80857) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.3¢ | $28.28 | — | -$2.76 | 65% 21027-11533 (32560) |
Invested
$1,611.12
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$38.88
Record
81%
159-37 (196)
Invested
$1,006.88
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$48.08
Record
57%
10052-7532 (17584)
Invested
$501.83
Value
$506.9
PnL
+$5.07
Record
93%
22362-1721 (24083)
Invested
$256.17
Value
$448
PnL
+$191.83
Record
50%
7594-7617 (15211)
Invested
$243.25
Value
$196
PnL
-$47.25
Record
57%
7452-5716 (13168)
NIULAI4Invested
$172.81
Value
$182
PnL
+$9.19
Record
77%
9234-2693 (11927)
Invested
$118.6
Value
$122.65
PnL
+$4.05
Record
52%
89056-83535 (172591)
Invested
$80.52
Value
$97.12
PnL
+$16.59
Record
57%
6515-4824 (11339)
Invested
$81.25
Value
$84.19
PnL
+$2.94
Record
69%
1580-712 (2292)
Invested
$56.61
Value
$107.73
PnL
+$51.12
Record
54%
15128-13039 (28167)
Invested
$70.5
Value
—
PnL
-$70.5
Record
73%
94979-35612 (130591)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$66.79
Value
$99.33
PnL
+$32.54
Record
55%
43829-36245 (80074)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.42
Value
$54.85
PnL
+$18.43
Record
66%
124150-63912 (188062)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$50.25
Value
$91.37
PnL
+$41.12
Record
74%
102021-36286 (138307)
Invested
$24.95
Value
$43.12
PnL
+$18.17
Record
61%
93558-58834 (152392)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$92.07
Value
—
PnL
-$92.07
Record
64%
39626-22607 (62233)
Invested
$62.32
Value
—
PnL
-$50.48
Record
65%
123874-66232 (190106)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$21.56
Value
$22.53
PnL
+$0.97
Record
65%
3853-2077 (5930)
Invested
$21.72
Value
$40.3
PnL
+$18.58
Record
58%
60004-43803 (103807)
Invested
$16.66
Value
—
PnL
-$16.66
Record
54%
14320-12113 (26433)
Invested
$3.33
Value
$8.33
PnL
+$5
Record
56%
57449-44380 (101829)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.11
Value
—
PnL
-$2.11
Record
63%
50847-30010 (80857)
Invested
$28.28
Value
—
PnL
-$2.76
Record
65%
21027-11533 (32560)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $1.6K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $1.1K
hoodquant
Down — $506.9
RLWG
Down — $448
wzbbb
Down — $196
NIULAI4
Down — $182
dvasdkasodk
Down — $122.65
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $97.12
asabovesobelow2
Down — $84.19
aswfadq1555
Down — $107.73