Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$14.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares2,951

Combined PnL+$202.96

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares394

Combined PnL-$217.11

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.1¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$42.39	93% 22338-1719 (24057)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 66.4¢	$436.84	$386.45	-$50.39	57% 10049-7530 (17579)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$192.45	$386.45	+$194
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.4¢	$244.4	—	-$244.4
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 64.1¢	$134.26	$156.7	+$22.44	54% 15126-13034 (28160)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$160.61	$152.44	-$8.17	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$91.58	$152.44	+$60.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.6¢	$69.03	—	-$69.03
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 73¢	$127.7	$119	-$8.7	57% 6514-4821 (11335)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73¢	$86.84	$119	+$32.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.8¢	$40.86	—	-$40.86
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Downavg 81.1¢	$94.24	$116.16	+$21.92	73% 94979-35608 (130587)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 66.8¢	$100.61	—	-$100.61	56% 57437-44370 (101807)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$79.94	$47.38	-$32.56	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.5¢	$62.62	—	-$62.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$17.33	$47.38	+$30.05
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 54.6¢	$62.43	$97.5	+$35.07	50% 7589-7613 (15202)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 60¢	$59.69	$73	+$13.31	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 63.4¢	$86.54	$60	+$1.16	65% 20975-11511 (32486)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$39.31	—	-$39.31	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$26.34	—	-$26.34	54% 14311-12101 (26412)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 63¢	$37.8	$60	+$22.2	62% 43524-26450 (69974)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$35	$47.55	+$12.55	66% 124118-63886 (188004)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 74.7¢	$20.98	$28.07	+$7.09	63% 50818-30002 (80820)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$24.11	$32.91	+$8.8	61% 93527-58804 (152331)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$21.44	—	-$21.44	12% 17890-132710 (150600)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$18.79	$24.27	+$5.48	52% 89030-83502 (172532)
wowitsamazingCTR	Upavg 52¢	$117.28	—	-$24.47	58% 12461-9128 (21589)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 60¢	$10.2	$17	+$6.8	65% 3844-2075 (5919)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Downavg 57¢	$5	$8.77	+$3.77	69% 1579-712 (2291)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$4.94	—	-$4.94	66% 98405-50847 (149252)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	—	—	+$0	51% 19680-18843 (38523)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$2,186.37

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$42.39

Record

93%

22338-1719 (24057)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$436.84

Value

$386.45

PnL

-$50.39

Record

57%

10049-7530 (17579)

Both legs:

Down$192.4549.8¢+$194

Up$244.466.4¢-$244.4

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$134.26

Value

$156.7

PnL

+$22.44

Record

54%

15126-13034 (28160)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160.61

Value

$152.44

PnL

-$8.17

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

Both legs:

Down$91.5860.1¢+$60.86

Up$69.0372.6¢-$69.03

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.7

Value

$119

PnL

-$8.7

Record

57%

6514-4821 (11335)

Both legs:

Down$86.8473¢+$32.16

Up$40.8626.8¢-$40.86

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down

Invested

$94.24

Value

$116.16

PnL

+$21.92

Record

73%

94979-35608 (130587)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$100.61

Value

—

PnL

-$100.61

Record

56%

57437-44370 (101807)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$79.94

Value

$47.38

PnL

-$32.56

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

Both legs:

Up$62.6248.5¢-$62.62

Down$17.3336.6¢+$30.05

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$62.43

Value

$97.5

PnL

+$35.07

Record

50%

7589-7613 (15202)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$59.69

Value

$73

PnL

+$13.31

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$86.54

Value

$60

PnL

+$1.16

Record

65%

20975-11511 (32486)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$39.31

Value

—

PnL

-$39.31

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$26.34

Value

—

PnL

-$26.34

Record

54%

14311-12101 (26412)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$37.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$22.2

Record

62%

43524-26450 (69974)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$35

Value

$47.55

PnL

+$12.55

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$20.98

Value

$28.07

PnL

+$7.09

Record

63%

50818-30002 (80820)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$24.11

Value

$32.91

PnL

+$8.8

Record

61%

93527-58804 (152331)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$21.44

Value

—

PnL

-$21.44

Record

12%

17890-132710 (150600)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$18.79

Value

$24.27

PnL

+$5.48

Record

52%

89030-83502 (172532)

wowitsamazingCTR

Invested

$117.28

Value

—

PnL

-$24.47

Record

58%

12461-9128 (21589)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$10.2

Value

$17

PnL

+$6.8

Record

65%

3844-2075 (5919)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$8.77

PnL

+$3.77

Record

69%

1579-712 (2291)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

—

PnL

-$4.94

Record

66%

98405-50847 (149252)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19680-18843 (38523)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc678b58b...7fa322

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793144700

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $2.2K

+$42.39

trdyugiolkw

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$50.39

aswfadq1555

Down — $156.7

MayorMamdani

Arbitrage — excluded

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down — $116.16

+$21.92

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

RLWG

Down — $97.5

+$35.07

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $73

+$13.31

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