Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

13 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Up (57%) · Up at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$304.54

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 23 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,071

Combined PnL-$158.79

Down10 traders

Total Value$733.61

Total Shares1,459

Combined PnL-$145.75

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$519.65	$417.38	-$102.27	93% 22338-1719 (24057)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Downavg 77.9¢	$392.92	$410.5	+$17.58	57% 10049-7530 (17579)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$358.9	$359.08	+$0.18	59% 61872-42853 (104725)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 66.7¢	$337.81	$322.02	-$15.79	57% 7436-5708 (13144)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.7¢	$208.87	$248.84	+$39.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.1¢	$128.93	$73.19	-$55.75
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 72.9¢	$324.68	$312.14	-$12.54	54% 10215-8684 (18899)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.9¢	$218.7	$193.5	-$25.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.7¢	$105.98	$118.64	+$12.66
NIULAI4	Upavg 70¢	$182.06	$243.56	+$61.49	77% 9228-2692 (11920)
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 73.8¢	$191	$238.86	+$47.86	69% 1579-712 (2291)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 40.1¢	$311.1	$187.31	-$123.79	54% 14311-12101 (26412)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.1¢	$278.78	$142.61	-$136.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$32.32	$44.7	+$12.38
AS asdaefef	Upavg 84.2¢	$251.87	$167.54	-$84.33	66% 124118-63886 (188004)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 73.1¢	$148.45	$114.57	-$33.88	57% 6514-4821 (11335)
AS asidjasiodja	Upavg 94.8¢	$146.14	$104.5	-$41.64	61% 93527-58804 (152331)
Atomforge	Upavg 73.8¢	$86.68	$103.56	+$16.88	65% 3844-2075 (5919)
RL RLWGCTR	Downavg 50.7¢	$251.2	$101.47	-$149.72	50% 7589-7613 (15202)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 82.4¢	$139.2	$100.36	-$38.85	55% 43796-36217 (80013)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.5¢	$36.19	$74.73	+$38.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.4¢	$103.01	$25.63	-$77.39
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Downavg 75.7¢	$100.7	$96.09	-$4.61	54% 15126-13034 (28160)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 64¢	$62.76	$44.83	-$7.38	65% 123835-66215 (190050)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 25.2¢	$29.02	$37.42	+$8.4	52% 89030-83502 (172532)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 25.7¢	$39.31	$31.32	-$8	56% 57437-44370 (101807)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 60.4¢	$76.4	$27.8	-$20.1	65% 20975-11511 (32486)
wowitsamazing<$100	Upavg 56¢	$16.71	$22.65	+$5.94	58% 12461-9128 (21589)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 79.8¢	$21.24	$21.03	-$0.21	62% 43524-26450 (69974)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 15.4¢	$15.44	$20.56	+$5.12	58% 59994-43795 (103789)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 86¢	$21.69	$20.05	-$1.64	64% 39618-22602 (62220)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 50¢	$7.5	$7.58	+$0.08	66% 98405-50847 (149252)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100	Downavg 76¢	$7.6	$6.45	-$1.15	73% 94979-35608 (130587)

hoodquant

Invested

$519.65

Value

$417.38

PnL

-$102.27

Record

93%

22338-1719 (24057)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Down

Invested

$392.92

Value

$410.5

PnL

+$17.58

Record

57%

10049-7530 (17579)

0x50f7

Invested

$358.9

Value

$359.08

PnL

+$0.18

Record

59%

61872-42853 (104725)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$337.81

Value

$322.02

PnL

-$15.79

Record

57%

7436-5708 (13144)

Both legs:

Up$208.8766.7¢+$39.96

Down$128.9336.1¢-$55.75

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$324.68

Value

$312.14

PnL

-$12.54

Record

54%

10215-8684 (18899)

Both legs:

Down$218.772.9¢-$25.2

Up$105.9831.7¢+$12.66

NIULAI4

Invested

$182.06

Value

$243.56

PnL

+$61.49

Record

77%

9228-2692 (11920)

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$191

Value

$238.86

PnL

+$47.86

Record

69%

1579-712 (2291)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$311.1

Value

$187.31

PnL

-$123.79

Record

54%

14311-12101 (26412)

Both legs:

Down$278.7840.1¢-$136.17

Up$32.3257.5¢+$12.38

asdaefef

Invested

$251.87

Value

$167.54

PnL

-$84.33

Record

66%

124118-63886 (188004)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$148.45

Value

$114.57

PnL

-$33.88

Record

57%

6514-4821 (11335)

asidjasiodja

Invested

$146.14

Value

$104.5

PnL

-$41.64

Record

61%

93527-58804 (152331)

Atomforge

Invested

$86.68

Value

$103.56

PnL

+$16.88

Record

65%

3844-2075 (5919)

RLWGCTR

Down

Invested

$251.2

Value

$101.47

PnL

-$149.72

Record

50%

7589-7613 (15202)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$139.2

Value

$100.36

PnL

-$38.85

Record

55%

43796-36217 (80013)

Both legs:

Up$36.1938.5¢+$38.54

Down$103.0182.4¢-$77.39

aswfadq1555CTR

Down

Invested

$100.7

Value

$96.09

PnL

-$4.61

Record

54%

15126-13034 (28160)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$62.76

Value

$44.83

PnL

-$7.38

Record

65%

123835-66215 (190050)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.02

Value

$37.42

PnL

+$8.4

Record

52%

89030-83502 (172532)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.31

Value

$31.32

PnL

-$8

Record

56%

57437-44370 (101807)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$76.4

Value

$27.8

PnL

-$20.1

Record

65%

20975-11511 (32486)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

$16.71

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$5.94

Record

58%

12461-9128 (21589)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.24

Value

$21.03

PnL

-$0.21

Record

62%

43524-26450 (69974)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.44

Value

$20.56

PnL

+$5.12

Record

58%

59994-43795 (103789)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$21.69

Value

$20.05

PnL

-$1.64

Record

64%

39618-22602 (62220)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

66%

98405-50847 (149252)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.6

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$1.15

Record

73%

94979-35608 (130587)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

13 of 23 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.