Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Up 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$237.53
Smart Money Signal
13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.77 | 93% 22338-1719 (24057) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 69.4¢ | $622.66 | $597.58 | -$25.08 | 57% 10049-7530 (17579) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 65.2¢ | $299.82 | $296.73 | +$5.91 | 64% 57400-32165 (89565) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 46.8¢ | $111.9 | — | -$111.9 | 58% 37338-26566 (63904) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $65.67 | $102 | +$36.33 | 65% 123835-66215 (190050) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33¢ | $33.66 | $102 | +$68.34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.2¢ | $32.01 | — | -$32.01 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $95.31 | $88.64 | -$6.67 | 66% 124118-63886 (188004) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 60.9¢ | $75.79 | $78 | +$2.21 | 57% 7436-5708 (13144) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 79.5¢ | $71.61 | $76.53 | +$4.92 | 52% 89030-83502 (172532) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 83.4¢ | $83.06 | $76.36 | -$6.7 | 61% 93527-58804 (152331) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 26.9¢ | $66.7 | — | -$66.7 | 73% 94979-35608 (130587) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 47.6¢ | $32.9 | — | -$32.9 | 58% 50695-36819 (87514) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $27.39 | $20 | -$7.39 | 65% 20975-11511 (32486) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 40.8¢ | $19.44 | $26.51 | +$7.07 | 55% 43796-36217 (80013) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $25.19 | $25.19 | +$0 | 58% 59994-43795 (103789) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $20.63 | $21.05 | +$0.42 | 63% 50818-30002 (80820) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $18.24 | $19 | +$0.76 | 77% 9228-2692 (11920) |
BE beeemwCTR<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 78% 277-76 (353) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $4.09 | — | -$4.09 | 64% 39618-22602 (62220) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.16 | — | -$0.16 | 54% 15126-13034 (28160) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 71.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19680-18843 (38523) |
Invested
$1,199.23
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.77
Record
93%
22338-1719 (24057)
Invested
$622.66
Value
$597.58
PnL
-$25.08
Record
57%
10049-7530 (17579)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$299.82
Value
$296.73
PnL
+$5.91
Record
64%
57400-32165 (89565)
Invested
$111.9
Value
—
PnL
-$111.9
Record
58%
37338-26566 (63904)
Invested
$65.67
Value
$102
PnL
+$36.33
Record
65%
123835-66215 (190050)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.31
Value
$88.64
PnL
-$6.67
Record
66%
124118-63886 (188004)
Invested
$75.79
Value
$78
PnL
+$2.21
Record
57%
7436-5708 (13144)
Invested
$71.61
Value
$76.53
PnL
+$4.92
Record
52%
89030-83502 (172532)
Invested
$83.06
Value
$76.36
PnL
-$6.7
Record
61%
93527-58804 (152331)
Invested
$66.7
Value
—
PnL
-$66.7
Record
73%
94979-35608 (130587)
Invested
$32.9
Value
—
PnL
-$32.9
Record
58%
50695-36819 (87514)
Invested
$27.39
Value
$20
PnL
-$7.39
Record
65%
20975-11511 (32486)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$19.44
Value
$26.51
PnL
+$7.07
Record
55%
43796-36217 (80013)
Invested
$25.19
Value
$25.19
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
59994-43795 (103789)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$20.63
Value
$21.05
PnL
+$0.42
Record
63%
50818-30002 (80820)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$18.24
Value
$19
PnL
+$0.76
Record
77%
9228-2692 (11920)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
78%
277-76 (353)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.09
Value
—
PnL
-$4.09
Record
64%
39618-22602 (62220)
Invested
$0.16
Value
—
PnL
-$0.16
Record
54%
15126-13034 (28160)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19680-18843 (38523)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
trdyugiolkw
Up — $597.58
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $296.73
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdaefef
Up — $88.64
wzbbb
Up — $78
dvasdkasodk
Up — $76.53
asidjasiodja
Up — $76.36
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
CTRDown — $0