Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 75%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$240.74
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$13.73 | 93% 22338-1719 (24057) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 74.9¢ | $569.33 | $478.62 | -$90.71 | 57% 10049-7530 (17579) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 77.5¢ | $238.52 | $239.99 | +$1.47 | 64% 57400-32165 (89565) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 48.4¢ | $189.62 | — | -$189.62 | 58% 37338-26566 (63904) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 64.2¢ | $78.75 | $107 | +$28.25 | 57% 7436-5708 (13144) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $84.11 | $50 | -$34.11 | 65% 123835-66215 (190050) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.2¢ | $56.55 | — | -$56.55 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.1¢ | $27.56 | $50 | +$22.44 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $84.12 | $80 | -$4.12 | 57% 6514-4821 (11335) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $78.36 | $81.27 | +$2.9 | 66% 124118-63886 (188004) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68¢ | $55.26 | $81.27 | +$26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53¢ | $23.1 | — | -$23.1 | |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 64.7¢ | $48.25 | $68.76 | +$20.51 | 54% 15126-13034 (28160) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $12.5 | — | -$12.5 | 73% 94979-35608 (130587) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $10.33 | — | -$10.33 | 56% 57437-44370 (101807) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 80.7¢ | $23.57 | $29.2 | +$5.63 | 61% 93527-58804 (152331) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 92.2¢ | $14.29 | $15.5 | +$1.21 | 63% 50818-30002 (80820) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $19.22 | $25.29 | +$6.07 | 74% 102017-36283 (138300) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 84.1¢ | $17.64 | $20.97 | +$3.33 | 52% 89030-83502 (172532) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $7.57 | $16.47 | +$8.9 | 65% 20975-11511 (32486) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.3¢ | $26.84 | — | -$26.84 | 55% 43796-36217 (80013) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.12 | $8.41 | +$4.29 | 58% 50695-36819 (87514) |
Invested
$1,179.27
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$13.73
Record
93%
22338-1719 (24057)
Invested
$569.33
Value
$478.62
PnL
-$90.71
Record
57%
10049-7530 (17579)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$238.52
Value
$239.99
PnL
+$1.47
Record
64%
57400-32165 (89565)
Invested
$189.62
Value
—
PnL
-$189.62
Record
58%
37338-26566 (63904)
Invested
$78.75
Value
$107
PnL
+$28.25
Record
57%
7436-5708 (13144)
Invested
$84.11
Value
$50
PnL
-$34.11
Record
65%
123835-66215 (190050)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.12
Value
$80
PnL
-$4.12
Record
57%
6514-4821 (11335)
Invested
$78.36
Value
$81.27
PnL
+$2.9
Record
66%
124118-63886 (188004)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.25
Value
$68.76
PnL
+$20.51
Record
54%
15126-13034 (28160)
Invested
$12.5
Value
—
PnL
-$12.5
Record
73%
94979-35608 (130587)
Invested
$10.33
Value
—
PnL
-$10.33
Record
56%
57437-44370 (101807)
Invested
$23.57
Value
$29.2
PnL
+$5.63
Record
61%
93527-58804 (152331)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$14.29
Value
$15.5
PnL
+$1.21
Record
63%
50818-30002 (80820)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$19.22
Value
$25.29
PnL
+$6.07
Record
74%
102017-36283 (138300)
Invested
$17.64
Value
$20.97
PnL
+$3.33
Record
52%
89030-83502 (172532)
Invested
$7.57
Value
$16.47
PnL
+$8.9
Record
65%
20975-11511 (32486)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$26.84
Value
—
PnL
-$26.84
Record
55%
43796-36217 (80013)
Invested
$4.12
Value
$8.41
PnL
+$4.29
Record
58%
50695-36819 (87514)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $478.62
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $239.99
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
Down — $107
drfc4eybh7i8
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $80
asdaefef
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
Down — $68.76
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
CTRUp — $0