Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Up 57%
4 arb excluded
$2.2K
$3.51
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $818.85 | $771.44 | -$47.41 | 57% 10037-7526 (17563) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75.8¢ | $584.76 | $771.44 | +$186.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.7¢ | $234.09 | — | -$234.09 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $924.09 | $934.13 | +$10.04 | 93% 22322-1716 (24038) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 77.6¢ | $146.41 | $125 | -$21.41 | 57% 7421-5701 (13122) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.6¢ | $96.96 | $125 | +$28.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.4¢ | $49.45 | — | -$49.45 | |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 78.4¢ | $123.21 | $157.07 | +$33.86 | 54% 14301-12092 (26393) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 24.6¢ | $62 | $28.27 | -$33.73 | 54% 15122-13027 (28149) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24.6¢ | $40.59 | — | -$40.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75.7¢ | $21.41 | $28.27 | +$6.86 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 71.4¢ | $56.66 | $53 | -$3.66 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.4¢ | $37.82 | $53 | +$15.18 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.4¢ | $18.84 | — | -$18.84 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 76.7¢ | $36.5 | $30 | -$6.5 | 57% 6508-4816 (11324) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $22.12 | — | -$22.12 | 55% 43758-36180 (79938) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 19.9¢ | $21.9 | — | -$21.9 | 73% 94978-35607 (130585) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $25.85 | $53.85 | +$28 | 58% 37308-26476 (63784) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 75.9¢ | $26.64 | $33.61 | +$6.98 | 65% 20906-11464 (32370) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 17.8¢ | $15.13 | — | -$15.13 | 61% 93493-58782 (152275) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 67.1¢ | $12.91 | $19.23 | +$6.32 | 66% 124076-63863 (187939) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $11.52 | $12 | +$0.48 | 77% 9225-2688 (11913) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $2.57 | — | -$2.57 | 63% 50771-29982 (80753) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $9.6 | — | -$9.6 | 65% 123790-66202 (189992) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.8¢ | $5.85 | — | -$5.85 | 52% 88990-83472 (172462) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $4.99 | +$1.5 | 50% 7585-7608 (15193) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 76.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19668-18828 (38496) |
Invested
$818.85
Value
$771.44
PnL
-$47.41
Record
57%
10037-7526 (17563)
Both legs:
Invested
$924.09
Value
$934.13
PnL
+$10.04
Record
93%
22322-1716 (24038)
Invested
$146.41
Value
$125
PnL
-$21.41
Record
57%
7421-5701 (13122)
Both legs:
Invested
$123.21
Value
$157.07
PnL
+$33.86
Record
54%
14301-12092 (26393)
Invested
$62
Value
$28.27
PnL
-$33.73
Record
54%
15122-13027 (28149)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$56.66
Value
$53
PnL
-$3.66
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.5
Value
$30
PnL
-$6.5
Record
57%
6508-4816 (11324)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$22.12
Value
—
PnL
-$22.12
Record
55%
43758-36180 (79938)
Invested
$21.9
Value
—
PnL
-$21.9
Record
73%
94978-35607 (130585)
Invested
$25.85
Value
$53.85
PnL
+$28
Record
58%
37308-26476 (63784)
Invested
$26.64
Value
$33.61
PnL
+$6.98
Record
65%
20906-11464 (32370)
Invested
$15.13
Value
—
PnL
-$15.13
Record
61%
93493-58782 (152275)
Invested
$12.91
Value
$19.23
PnL
+$6.32
Record
66%
124076-63863 (187939)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$11.52
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.48
Record
77%
9225-2688 (11913)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.57
Value
—
PnL
-$2.57
Record
63%
50771-29982 (80753)
Invested
$9.6
Value
—
PnL
-$9.6
Record
65%
123790-66202 (189992)
Invested
$5.85
Value
—
PnL
-$5.85
Record
52%
88990-83472 (172462)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$1.5
Record
50%
7585-7608 (15193)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19668-18828 (38496)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $934.13
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
Up — $157.07
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
Up — $30
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $53.85