Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 50%
6 arb excluded
$2.7K
$138.34
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $965.89 | $978 | +$12.11 | 93% 22322-1716 (24038) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 61.9¢ | $640.94 | $528.12 | -$112.82 | 57% 10037-7526 (17563) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.9¢ | $326.89 | $528.12 | +$201.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.7¢ | $314.05 | — | -$314.05 | |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 29.5¢ | $249.25 | $105.6 | -$143.66 | 54% 15122-13027 (28149) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.5¢ | $191.97 | — | -$191.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.2¢ | $57.28 | $105.6 | +$48.31 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 48.4¢ | $131.65 | $272.18 | +$140.54 | 58% 37308-26476 (63784) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 83.6¢ | $119.16 | $142.45 | +$23.29 | 77% 9225-2688 (11913) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $133.16 | $99.58 | -$33.58 | 57% 6508-4816 (11324) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.9¢ | $65.59 | $99.58 | +$33.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.5¢ | $67.57 | — | -$67.57 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 45.8¢ | $88.74 | $93.13 | +$4.39 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.6¢ | $43.35 | $93.13 | +$49.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.8¢ | $45.39 | — | -$45.39 | |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 35.8¢ | $100.13 | $42 | -$58.13 | 57% 7421-5701 (13122) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.3¢ | $27 | $42 | +$15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.8¢ | $73.13 | — | -$73.13 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $88.87 | $91 | +$6.63 | 65% 123790-66202 (189992) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67¢ | $60.97 | $91 | +$30.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.1¢ | $22.99 | — | -$23.4 | |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 54.4¢ | $48.55 | $80 | +$31.45 | 50% 7585-7608 (15193) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $51.61 | $74.48 | +$22.87 | 58% 59979-43785 (103764) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Upavg 84.6¢ | $40 | $47.29 | +$7.29 | 69% 1578-711 (2289) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.8¢ | $37.35 | — | -$37.35 | 58% 12458-9125 (21583) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $33.54 | — | -$33.54 | 66% 124076-63863 (187939) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $28.18 | $56 | +$27.82 | 12% 17883-132704 (150587) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $24.5 | $45 | +$23.5 | 51% 19668-18828 (38496) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 41.8¢ | $35.39 | — | -$24.29 | 65% 20906-11464 (32370) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 41.4¢ | $17.22 | — | -$17.22 | 52% 88990-83472 (172462) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.6¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 61% 93493-58782 (152275) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $8.55 | — | -$8.55 | 64% 39607-22596 (62203) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $9.8 | $11.81 | +$2.01 | 65% 3842-2071 (5913) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $10.2 | — | -$10.2 | 56% 57417-44359 (101776) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $4.51 | — | -$4.51 | 63% 50771-29982 (80753) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $4.2 | — | -$4.2 | 54% 14301-12092 (26393) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $10.01 | +$5.11 | 58% 50689-36814 (87503) |
Invested
$965.89
Value
$978
PnL
+$12.11
Record
93%
22322-1716 (24038)
Invested
$640.94
Value
$528.12
PnL
-$112.82
Record
57%
10037-7526 (17563)
Both legs:
Invested
$249.25
Value
$105.6
PnL
-$143.66
Record
54%
15122-13027 (28149)
Both legs:
Invested
$131.65
Value
$272.18
PnL
+$140.54
Record
58%
37308-26476 (63784)
NIULAI4Invested
$119.16
Value
$142.45
PnL
+$23.29
Record
77%
9225-2688 (11913)
Invested
$133.16
Value
$99.58
PnL
-$33.58
Record
57%
6508-4816 (11324)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$88.74
Value
$93.13
PnL
+$4.39
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.13
Value
$42
PnL
-$58.13
Record
57%
7421-5701 (13122)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.87
Value
$91
PnL
+$6.63
Record
65%
123790-66202 (189992)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.55
Value
$80
PnL
+$31.45
Record
50%
7585-7608 (15193)
Invested
$51.61
Value
$74.48
PnL
+$22.87
Record
58%
59979-43785 (103764)
Invested
$40
Value
$47.29
PnL
+$7.29
Record
69%
1578-711 (2289)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$37.35
Value
—
PnL
-$37.35
Record
58%
12458-9125 (21583)
Invested
$33.54
Value
—
PnL
-$33.54
Record
66%
124076-63863 (187939)
Invested
$28.18
Value
$56
PnL
+$27.82
Record
12%
17883-132704 (150587)
Invested
$24.5
Value
$45
PnL
+$23.5
Record
51%
19668-18828 (38496)
Invested
$35.39
Value
—
PnL
-$24.29
Record
65%
20906-11464 (32370)
Invested
$17.22
Value
—
PnL
-$17.22
Record
52%
88990-83472 (172462)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
61%
93493-58782 (152275)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$8.55
Value
—
PnL
-$8.55
Record
64%
39607-22596 (62203)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
$11.81
PnL
+$2.01
Record
65%
3842-2071 (5913)
Invested
$10.2
Value
—
PnL
-$10.2
Record
56%
57417-44359 (101776)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$4.51
Value
—
PnL
-$4.51
Record
63%
50771-29982 (80753)
Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
-$4.2
Record
54%
14301-12092 (26393)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$10.01
PnL
+$5.11
Record
58%
50689-36814 (87503)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $978
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $272.18
NIULAI4
Up — $142.45
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RLWG
Up — $80