Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 81%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$36.57
Smart Money Signal
13 of 16 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 78.7¢ | $835 | $880.58 | +$45.59 | 57% 10028-7520 (17548) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 81.3¢ | $251.43 | $244.91 | -$6.52 | 64% 57360-32136 (89496) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 77.3¢ | $268.8 | $223.31 | -$45.5 | 54% 10181-8638 (18819) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 72.4¢ | $227.9 | $290.52 | +$62.62 | 57% 69130-52632 (121762) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 86.8¢ | $157.86 | $181.9 | +$24.04 | 54% 14298-12090 (26388) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $84.53 | $85.38 | +$0.85 | 93% 22297-1716 (24013) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $54.95 | $63.94 | +$8.99 | 66% 124038-63844 (187882) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 83.2¢ | $79.28 | $57.81 | +$8.42 | 65% 20854-11432 (32286) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $68.86 | $29 | -$39.86 | 57% 7404-5695 (13099) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70¢ | $20.3 | $29 | +$8.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18¢ | $48.56 | — | -$48.56 | |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 81.3¢ | $29.59 | $36.41 | +$6.82 | 61% 93462-58762 (152224) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $28.77 | $24 | -$4.77 | 52% 88964-83442 (172406) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $18.81 | $21.05 | +$2.24 | 63% 50746-29976 (80722) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $10.81 | $11.89 | +$1.08 | 55% 43735-36149 (79884) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.1¢ | $34.4 | — | -$34.4 | 50% 7581-7604 (15185) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $35.3 | — | -$23.54 | 51% 19661-18815 (38476) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 17.3¢ | $14.56 | — | -$14.56 | 73% 94977-35605 (130582) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $10 | +$5.2 | 12% 17876-132702 (150578) |
Invested
$835
Value
$880.58
PnL
+$45.59
Record
57%
10028-7520 (17548)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$251.43
Value
$244.91
PnL
-$6.52
Record
64%
57360-32136 (89496)
Invested
$268.8
Value
$223.31
PnL
-$45.5
Record
54%
10181-8638 (18819)
Invested
$227.9
Value
$290.52
PnL
+$62.62
Record
57%
69130-52632 (121762)
Invested
$157.86
Value
$181.9
PnL
+$24.04
Record
54%
14298-12090 (26388)
Invested
$84.53
Value
$85.38
PnL
+$0.85
Record
93%
22297-1716 (24013)
Invested
$54.95
Value
$63.94
PnL
+$8.99
Record
66%
124038-63844 (187882)
Invested
$79.28
Value
$57.81
PnL
+$8.42
Record
65%
20854-11432 (32286)
Invested
$68.86
Value
$29
PnL
-$39.86
Record
57%
7404-5695 (13099)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.59
Value
$36.41
PnL
+$6.82
Record
61%
93462-58762 (152224)
Invested
$28.77
Value
$24
PnL
-$4.77
Record
52%
88964-83442 (172406)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$18.81
Value
$21.05
PnL
+$2.24
Record
63%
50746-29976 (80722)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.81
Value
$11.89
PnL
+$1.08
Record
55%
43735-36149 (79884)
Invested
$34.4
Value
—
PnL
-$34.4
Record
50%
7581-7604 (15185)
Invested
$35.3
Value
—
PnL
-$23.54
Record
51%
19661-18815 (38476)
Invested
$14.56
Value
—
PnL
-$14.56
Record
73%
94977-35605 (130582)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.2
Record
12%
17876-132702 (150578)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
Down — $880.58
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $244.91
thesidehustle
Down — $223.31
uninformedfloww
Down — $290.52
tmsd-test
Down — $181.9
hoodquant
Down — $85.38
asdaefef
Down — $63.94
aaa221
Down — $57.81
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asidjasiodja
Down — $36.41