Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 26% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Down 57%
$1.7K
-$329.52
Smart Money Signal
6 of 23 top traders (26%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 25.1¢ | $451.51 | $1.5K | +$1.0K | 54% 15122-13027 (28149) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Downavg 51.3¢ | $584.1 | — | -$584.1 | 57% 10037-7526 (17563) |
 wowitsamazing | Upavg 38.6¢ | $73.95 | $191.43 | +$117.48 | 58% 12458-9125 (21583) |
TH thesidehustleCTR | Downavg 43.6¢ | $115.35 | — | -$115.35 | 54% 10196-8661 (18857) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR | Downavg 75.6¢ | $109.84 | — | -$109.84 | 57% 6508-4816 (11324) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Downavg 79.3¢ | $826.36 | — | -$677.13 | 54% 14301-12092 (26393) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $54.9 | $90 | +$35.1 | 51% 19668-18828 (38496) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 50.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 66% 98395-50832 (149227) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 21.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 7421-5701 (13122) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | — | — | +$0 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 69179-52673 (121852) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 60.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 123790-66202 (189992) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | — | — | +$0 | 74% 102009-36281 (138290) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 49.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 7585-7608 (15193) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | — | — | +$0 | 93% 22322-1716 (24038) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 59979-43785 (103764) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 43758-36180 (79938) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 55.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 93493-58782 (152275) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 71.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 66% 124076-63863 (187939) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | — | — | +$0 | 62% 43512-26432 (69944) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 75.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 57417-44359 (101776) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 19.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 88990-83472 (172462) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 82.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 20906-11464 (32370) |
Invested
$451.51
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
54%
15122-13027 (28149)
Invested
$584.1
Value
—
PnL
-$584.1
Record
57%
10037-7526 (17563)
wowitsamazingInvested
$73.95
Value
$191.43
PnL
+$117.48
Record
58%
12458-9125 (21583)
Invested
$115.35
Value
—
PnL
-$115.35
Record
54%
10196-8661 (18857)
Invested
$109.84
Value
—
PnL
-$109.84
Record
57%
6508-4816 (11324)
Invested
$826.36
Value
—
PnL
-$677.13
Record
54%
14301-12092 (26393)
Invested
$54.9
Value
$90
PnL
+$35.1
Record
51%
19668-18828 (38496)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
98395-50832 (149227)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
7421-5701 (13122)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
69179-52673 (121852)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
123790-66202 (189992)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
74%
102009-36281 (138290)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7585-7608 (15193)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
93%
22322-1716 (24038)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
59979-43785 (103764)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
43758-36180 (79938)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
93493-58782 (152275)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
124076-63863 (187939)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
43512-26432 (69944)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
57417-44359 (101776)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
88990-83472 (172462)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
20906-11464 (32370)
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