Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 67%
2 arb excluded
$7.5K
$966.18
Smart Money Signal
14 of 21 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 25.6¢ | $883.76 | $1.9K | +$1.0K | 54% 15110-13017 (28127) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$15.74 | 93% 22269-1715 (23984) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 61.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$72.73 | 57% 10019-7512 (17531) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 39.9¢ | $614.9 | $1.2K | +$599.24 | 57% 69092-52584 (121676) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 36.8¢ | $473.48 | — | -$473.48 | 54% 14294-12088 (26382) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $363.42 | $263.71 | -$99.71 | 73% 94976-35604 (130580) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.7¢ | $227.6 | — | -$227.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.5¢ | $135.82 | $263.71 | +$127.89 | |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 78.9¢ | $363.38 | $297.09 | -$66.3 | 57% 7389-5686 (13075) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 31.3¢ | $114.6 | $365.57 | +$250.97 | 58% 12454-9117 (21571) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 61¢ | $99 | $144.18 | +$45.18 | 55% 49869-40477 (90346) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $182.35 | $164.39 | -$17.96 | 57% 6498-4811 (11309) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.9¢ | $91.15 | — | -$91.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.5¢ | $91.2 | $164.39 | +$73.19 | |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $102.82 | $133 | +$30.18 | 77% 9217-2683 (11900) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 61.2¢ | $134.62 | $116.21 | -$18.41 | 66% 123993-63821 (187814) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $82.25 | $104.92 | +$22.67 | 69% 1574-710 (2284) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR | Upavg 72.1¢ | $100.79 | — | -$100.79 | 56% 57395-44340 (101735) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $74.39 | $50 | -$6.83 | 65% 123715-66149 (189864) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 78.5¢ | $69.84 | — | -$69.84 | 65% 20812-11390 (32202) |
DE devonpollCTR | Upavg 60.2¢ | $101.52 | — | -$90.37 | 51% 19648-18799 (38447) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $65.7 | $44.74 | -$20.96 | 55% 43713-36124 (79837) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 67.4¢ | $56.18 | — | -$56.18 | 64% 57344-32114 (89458) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $25.84 | $44.99 | +$19.15 | 50% 7576-7601 (15177) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 58.8¢ | $41.85 | — | -$41.85 | 61% 93423-58740 (152163) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 11.3¢ | $21.42 | — | -$21.42 | 52% 88930-83410 (172340) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 73.9¢ | $14.7 | $19.9 | +$5.2 | 65% 3820-2062 (5882) |
Invested
$883.76
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
54%
15110-13017 (28127)
Invested
$1,548.57
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$15.74
Record
93%
22269-1715 (23984)
Invested
$1,104.12
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$72.73
Record
57%
10019-7512 (17531)
Invested
$614.9
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$599.24
Record
57%
69092-52584 (121676)
Invested
$473.48
Value
—
PnL
-$473.48
Record
54%
14294-12088 (26382)
Invested
$363.42
Value
$263.71
PnL
-$99.71
Record
73%
94976-35604 (130580)
Both legs:
Invested
$363.38
Value
$297.09
PnL
-$66.3
Record
57%
7389-5686 (13075)
wowitsamazingInvested
$114.6
Value
$365.57
PnL
+$250.97
Record
58%
12454-9117 (21571)
Invested
$99
Value
$144.18
PnL
+$45.18
Record
55%
49869-40477 (90346)
Invested
$182.35
Value
$164.39
PnL
-$17.96
Record
57%
6498-4811 (11309)
Both legs:
NIULAI4Invested
$102.82
Value
$133
PnL
+$30.18
Record
77%
9217-2683 (11900)
Invested
$134.62
Value
$116.21
PnL
-$18.41
Record
66%
123993-63821 (187814)
Invested
$82.25
Value
$104.92
PnL
+$22.67
Record
69%
1574-710 (2284)
Invested
$100.79
Value
—
PnL
-$100.79
Record
56%
57395-44340 (101735)
Invested
$74.39
Value
$50
PnL
-$6.83
Record
65%
123715-66149 (189864)
Invested
$69.84
Value
—
PnL
-$69.84
Record
65%
20812-11390 (32202)
Invested
$101.52
Value
—
PnL
-$90.37
Record
51%
19648-18799 (38447)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$65.7
Value
$44.74
PnL
-$20.96
Record
55%
43713-36124 (79837)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$56.18
Value
—
PnL
-$56.18
Record
64%
57344-32114 (89458)
Invested
$25.84
Value
$44.99
PnL
+$19.15
Record
50%
7576-7601 (15177)
Invested
$41.85
Value
—
PnL
-$41.85
Record
61%
93423-58740 (152163)
Invested
$21.42
Value
—
PnL
-$21.42
Record
52%
88930-83410 (172340)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$14.7
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$5.2
Record
65%
3820-2062 (5882)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
Down — $1.9K
hoodquant
Down — $1.6K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $1.0K
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.2K
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
Down — $297.09
wowitsamazing
Down — $365.57
mo-money
Down — $144.18
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded