Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$715.38

Smart Money Signal

19 of 22 top traders (86%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,047

Combined PnL+$809.82

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares182

Combined PnL-$94.44

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 61.1¢	$902.39	$1.2K	+$248.31	54% 15110-13017 (28127)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.1¢	$702.51	$1.2K	+$448.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.1¢	$199.88	—	-$199.88
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 67.7¢	$835.08	$1.2K	+$398.91	57% 69092-52584 (121676)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 66.5¢	$884.38	$831.43	-$52.95	57% 10019-7512 (17531)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.5¢	$552.86	$831.43	+$278.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.2¢	$331.52	—	-$331.52
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$441.08	$449.84	+$8.76	54% 10142-8602 (18744)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$271.14	$449.84	+$178.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.9¢	$169.94	—	-$169.94
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$405.15	$409.24	+$4.09	93% 22269-1715 (23984)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$210.48	$254.03	+$43.55	57% 7389-5686 (13075)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$174.95	$254.03	+$79.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.7¢	$35.53	—	-$35.53
RL RLWG	Upavg 55.3¢	$203.55	$364.88	+$161.33	50% 7576-7601 (15177)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 76.6¢	$220.33	$213.27	-$1.31	64% 57344-32114 (89458)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.6¢	$163.42	$213.27	+$51.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.6¢	$52.32	—	-$52.32
TM tmsd-test	Upavg 68.1¢	$123.06	$180.7	+$57.64	54% 14294-12088 (26382)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 85.1¢	$111.07	$99.9	-$11.17	65% 123715-66149 (189864)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 80.1¢	$82.98	$80.38	-$2.6	57% 6498-4811 (11309)
NIULAI4	Upavg 67.4¢	$76	$101	+$25	77% 9217-2683 (11900)
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 71.2¢	$78.25	$102.15	+$23.9	69% 1574-710 (2284)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 54.7¢	$71.98	—	-$71.98	56% 57395-44340 (101735)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$45.35	$62.28	+$16.93	55% 43713-36124 (79837)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 83.3¢	$54.47	$56.66	+$12.79	65% 20812-11390 (32202)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 83.4¢	$58.05	$61.82	+$3.77	66% 123993-63821 (187814)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$41.27	$73.98	+$32.71	12% 17875-132699 (150574)
wowitsamazing<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$39	$71.38	+$32.38	58% 12454-9117 (21571)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$29.4	$40.52	+$11.12	65% 3820-2062 (5882)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Upavg 28¢	$11.2	$40	+$28.8	73% 94976-35604 (130580)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 59¢	$22.42	$38	+$15.58	66% 98373-50815 (149188)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$19.71	$17.16	-$2.55	61% 93423-58740 (152163)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 24.7¢	$11.21	—	-$11.21	52% 88930-83410 (172340)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 91¢	$12.05	$13.24	+$1.19	63% 50719-29966 (80685)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$902.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$248.31

Record

54%

15110-13017 (28127)

Both legs:

Up$702.5161.1¢+$448.19

Down$199.8815.1¢-$199.88

uninformedfloww

Invested

$835.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$398.91

Record

57%

69092-52584 (121676)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$884.38

Value

$831.43

PnL

-$52.95

Record

57%

10019-7512 (17531)

Both legs:

Up$552.8666.5¢+$278.58

Down$331.5233.2¢-$331.52

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$441.08

Value

$449.84

PnL

+$8.76

Record

54%

10142-8602 (18744)

Both legs:

Up$271.1460.3¢+$178.7

Down$169.9433.9¢-$169.94

hoodquant

Invested

$405.15

Value

$409.24

PnL

+$4.09

Record

93%

22269-1715 (23984)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$210.48

Value

$254.03

PnL

+$43.55

Record

57%

7389-5686 (13075)

Both legs:

Up$174.9568.9¢+$79.08

Down$35.5315.7¢-$35.53

RLWG

Invested

$203.55

Value

$364.88

PnL

+$161.33

Record

50%

7576-7601 (15177)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$220.33

Value

$213.27

PnL

-$1.31

Record

64%

57344-32114 (89458)

Both legs:

Up$163.4276.6¢+$51.01

Down$52.3224.6¢-$52.32

tmsd-test

Invested

$123.06

Value

$180.7

PnL

+$57.64

Record

54%

14294-12088 (26382)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$111.07

Value

$99.9

PnL

-$11.17

Record

65%

123715-66149 (189864)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$82.98

Value

$80.38

PnL

-$2.6

Record

57%

6498-4811 (11309)

NIULAI4

Invested

$76

Value

$101

PnL

+$25

Record

77%

9217-2683 (11900)

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$78.25

Value

$102.15

PnL

+$23.9

Record

69%

1574-710 (2284)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$71.98

Value

—

PnL

-$71.98

Record

56%

57395-44340 (101735)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$45.35

Value

$62.28

PnL

+$16.93

Record

55%

43713-36124 (79837)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$54.47

Value

$56.66

PnL

+$12.79

Record

65%

20812-11390 (32202)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$58.05

Value

$61.82

PnL

+$3.77

Record

66%

123993-63821 (187814)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$41.27

Value

$73.98

PnL

+$32.71

Record

12%

17875-132699 (150574)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

$39

Value

$71.38

PnL

+$32.38

Record

58%

12454-9117 (21571)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$40.52

PnL

+$11.12

Record

65%

3820-2062 (5882)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$40

PnL

+$28.8

Record

73%

94976-35604 (130580)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$22.42

Value

$38

PnL

+$15.58

Record

66%

98373-50815 (149188)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$19.71

Value

$17.16

PnL

-$2.55

Record

61%

93423-58740 (152163)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.21

Value

—

PnL

-$11.21

Record

52%

88930-83410 (172340)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$12.05

Value

$13.24

PnL

+$1.19

Record

63%

50719-29966 (80685)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 22 top traders (86%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfcb6b9a3...bd5850

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793124900

Traders in this Market

aswfadq1555

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$248.31

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.2K

trdyugiolkw

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $409.24

+$4.09

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$43.55

RLWG

Up — $364.88

+$161.33

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$1.31

tmsd-test

Up — $180.7

+$57.64

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $99.9

-$11.17

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