Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 94% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 94%
1 arb excluded
$9.4K
-$24.43
Smart Money Signal
15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$4.77 | 59% 61828-42766 (104594) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$18.87 | 93% 22237-1714 (23951) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 95.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$18.21 | 56% 7373-5679 (13052) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 74.8¢ | $392.19 | $381.06 | -$11.13 | 57% 10011-7505 (17516) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $420.13 | $316.6 | -$103.53 | 54% 15103-13012 (28115) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 75.7¢ | $257.18 | $282.63 | +$25.45 | 64% 57270-32043 (89313) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $282.24 | $220.45 | -$61.79 | 57% 69047-52548 (121595) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.4¢ | $120 | $220.45 | +$100.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $162.24 | — | -$162.24 | |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 93.6¢ | $248.34 | $242 | -$6.34 | 54% 10141-8602 (18743) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $27.69 | $27.2 | -$0.49 | 52% 88909-83368 (172277) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $22.25 | $22.47 | +$0.22 | 63% 50706-29951 (80657) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $30.37 | $20 | -$10.37 | 57% 6494-4805 (11299) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $14.94 | $16.06 | +$1.12 | 61% 93399-58707 (152106) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $12.22 | $23.5 | +$11.28 | 62% 43482-26402 (69884) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $14.95 | $18.8 | +$3.85 | 66% 123955-63798 (187753) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $6.95 | $15.79 | +$8.84 | 65% 123689-66126 (189815) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $3.94 | $9.39 | +$5.45 | 55% 43689-36107 (79796) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $22.2 | — | +$9.38 | 65% 20770-11363 (32133) |
Invested
$4,766.6
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$4.77
Record
59%
61828-42766 (104594)
Invested
$1,868.13
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$18.87
Record
93%
22237-1714 (23951)
Invested
$1,103.79
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$18.21
Record
56%
7373-5679 (13052)
Invested
$392.19
Value
$381.06
PnL
-$11.13
Record
57%
10011-7505 (17516)
Invested
$420.13
Value
$316.6
PnL
-$103.53
Record
54%
15103-13012 (28115)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$257.18
Value
$282.63
PnL
+$25.45
Record
64%
57270-32043 (89313)
Invested
$282.24
Value
$220.45
PnL
-$61.79
Record
57%
69047-52548 (121595)
Both legs:
Invested
$248.34
Value
$242
PnL
-$6.34
Record
54%
10141-8602 (18743)
Invested
$27.69
Value
$27.2
PnL
-$0.49
Record
52%
88909-83368 (172277)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$22.25
Value
$22.47
PnL
+$0.22
Record
63%
50706-29951 (80657)
Invested
$30.37
Value
$20
PnL
-$10.37
Record
57%
6494-4805 (11299)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$16.06
PnL
+$1.12
Record
61%
93399-58707 (152106)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$12.22
Value
$23.5
PnL
+$11.28
Record
62%
43482-26402 (69884)
Invested
$14.95
Value
$18.8
PnL
+$3.85
Record
66%
123955-63798 (187753)
Invested
$6.95
Value
$15.79
PnL
+$8.84
Record
65%
123689-66126 (189815)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.94
Value
$9.39
PnL
+$5.45
Record
55%
43689-36107 (79796)
Invested
$22.2
Value
—
PnL
+$9.38
Record
65%
20770-11363 (32133)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $4.8K
hoodquant
Down — $1.9K
wzbbb
Down — $1.1K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $381.06
aswfadq1555
Down — $316.6
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $282.63
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
Down — $242
dvasdkasodk
Down — $27.2
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $22.47