Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 75%
3 arb excluded
$4.0K
$45.07
Smart Money Signal
15 of 21 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$86.43 | 73% 94965-35598 (130563) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 73.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$74.28 | 57% 9977-7486 (17463) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.4¢ | $893.32 | $907.99 | +$14.67 | 93% 22150-1708 (23858) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 31.7¢ | $139.54 | $106.3 | -$33.24 | 54% 15084-12995 (28079) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.8¢ | $65.7 | $106.3 | +$40.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.7¢ | $73.84 | — | -$73.84 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $93.8 | $100 | +$6.2 | 57% 6479-4795 (11274) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.8¢ | $61.8 | $100 | +$38.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.7¢ | $32 | — | -$32 | |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 15.5¢ | $66.74 | $43 | -$23.74 | 56% 7329-5651 (12980) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.5¢ | $34.62 | — | -$34.62 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.7¢ | $32.12 | $43 | +$10.88 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $86.15 | $81.18 | -$4.97 | 66% 123808-63743 (187551) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 44¢ | $54.02 | $122.77 | +$68.75 | 54% 14287-12076 (26363) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.5¢ | $49.18 | — | -$49.18 | 55% 47790-39367 (87157) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 55.4¢ | $44.91 | $81.1 | +$36.19 | 58% 59914-43736 (103650) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $27.12 | $32.26 | +$5.14 | 61% 93280-58641 (151921) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $30.96 | $30.99 | +$0.03 | 59% 61779-42723 (104502) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $23.63 | $21.38 | -$2.25 | 52% 88816-83270 (172086) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 61.2¢ | $35.15 | — | -$35.15 | 65% 123573-66074 (189647) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $27.95 | $30.21 | +$2.26 | 55% 17077-13720 (30797) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 97.1¢ | $15.06 | $15.52 | +$0.46 | 63% 50639-29898 (80537) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $11.48 | $22.51 | +$11.03 | 62% 43457-26365 (69822) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $10 | $12.35 | +$2.35 | 78% 267-75 (342) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $8.2 | $10 | +$1.8 | 55% 43591-36019 (79610) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $11.5 | — | -$11.5 | 65% 20619-11265 (31884) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 12% 17867-132684 (150551) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $5 | +$1.7 | 56% 57338-44297 (101635) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 50% 7569-7594 (15163) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19576-18764 (38340) |
Invested
$1,267.8
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$86.43
Record
73%
94965-35598 (130563)
Invested
$1,106.34
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$74.28
Record
57%
9977-7486 (17463)
Invested
$893.32
Value
$907.99
PnL
+$14.67
Record
93%
22150-1708 (23858)
Invested
$139.54
Value
$106.3
PnL
-$33.24
Record
54%
15084-12995 (28079)
Both legs:
Invested
$93.8
Value
$100
PnL
+$6.2
Record
57%
6479-4795 (11274)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.74
Value
$43
PnL
-$23.74
Record
56%
7329-5651 (12980)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.15
Value
$81.18
PnL
-$4.97
Record
66%
123808-63743 (187551)
Invested
$54.02
Value
$122.77
PnL
+$68.75
Record
54%
14287-12076 (26363)
Invested
$49.18
Value
—
PnL
-$49.18
Record
55%
47790-39367 (87157)
Invested
$44.91
Value
$81.1
PnL
+$36.19
Record
58%
59914-43736 (103650)
Invested
$27.12
Value
$32.26
PnL
+$5.14
Record
61%
93280-58641 (151921)
Invested
$30.96
Value
$30.99
PnL
+$0.03
Record
59%
61779-42723 (104502)
Invested
$23.63
Value
$21.38
PnL
-$2.25
Record
52%
88816-83270 (172086)
Invested
$35.15
Value
—
PnL
-$35.15
Record
65%
123573-66074 (189647)
Invested
$27.95
Value
$30.21
PnL
+$2.26
Record
55%
17077-13720 (30797)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$15.06
Value
$15.52
PnL
+$0.46
Record
63%
50639-29898 (80537)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.48
Value
$22.51
PnL
+$11.03
Record
62%
43457-26365 (69822)
Invested
$10
Value
$12.35
PnL
+$2.35
Record
78%
267-75 (342)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.8
Record
55%
43591-36019 (79610)
Invested
$11.5
Value
—
PnL
-$11.5
Record
65%
20619-11265 (31884)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
12%
17867-132684 (150551)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.7
Record
56%
57338-44297 (101635)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
50%
7569-7594 (15163)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19576-18764 (38340)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
Down — $1.4K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $1.0K
hoodquant
Down — $907.99
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdaefef
Down — $81.18
tmsd-test
Down — $122.77
almach
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $81.1