Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$127.29

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,277

Combined PnL+$75.36

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares504

Combined PnL-$202.65

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$902.31	$701.88	-$200.43	57% 9969-7479 (17448)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.6¢	$544.98	$701.88	+$156.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.2¢	$357.33	—	-$357.33
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Downavg 83.4¢	$866.27	$870.79	+$4.52	73% 94962-35595 (130557)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 44.2¢	$1.1K	$297.19	-$777.94	68% 98394-46667 (145061)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.2¢	$847.36	—	-$847.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.6¢	$227.76	$297.19	+$69.42
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 35¢	$349.19	$342.99	-$6.21	54% 15082-12986 (28068)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.1¢	$127.13	$342.99	+$215.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 35¢	$222.06	—	-$222.06
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$302.73	$289.42	-$13.31	56% 7316-5641 (12957)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.6¢	$224.67	$289.42	+$64.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.7¢	$78.06	—	-$78.06
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 64¢	$132.51	$207	+$74.49	54% 14282-12072 (26354)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 70.1¢	$120.27	$93.35	-$26.92	57% 6475-4791 (11266)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.1¢	$65.42	$93.35	+$27.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$54.85	—	-$54.85
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 73.2¢	$98.23	—	-$98.23	55% 43574-35987 (79561)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86.6¢	$62.93	$48.42	-$14.51	66% 123770-63721 (187491)
AA aaa221	Downavg 75.3¢	$117.65	$59.99	+$1.02	65% 20576-11237 (31813)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 24.9¢	$45.9	—	-$45.9	55% 17045-13693 (30738)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 91.3¢	$45.25	$49.54	+$4.29	65% 123539-66052 (189591)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 16.2¢	$14.8	—	-$14.8	51% 19565-18744 (38309)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 89¢	$19.56	$13.88	-$5.68	63% 50616-29893 (80509)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$5.52	—	-$5.52	64% 39543-22552 (62095)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$10.11	$20.02	+$9.91	58% 50620-36754 (87374)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 81¢	$5.67	$7	+$1.33	78% 9204-2669 (11873)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 45.4¢	$15.9	—	-$15.9	50% 7568-7591 (15159)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$4.7	—	-$4.7	12% 17863-132677 (150540)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 53.1¢	$13.74	—	-$13.74	61% 93252-58615 (151867)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 16.3¢	$3.86	—	-$3.86	52% 88790-83234 (172024)