Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 46%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Signal

11 of 24 top traders (46%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,408

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Down13 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,649

Combined PnL+$242.56

Up — 46%Down — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 37.3¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.1K	68% 98347-46616 (144963)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Downavg 84.7¢	$671.44	$623.69	-$47.75	73% 94958-35591 (130549)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$430.32	$233.97	-$196.35	57% 9956-7469 (17425)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.9¢	$360.34	—	-$360.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.9¢	$69.98	$233.97	+$163.99
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 75.9¢	$196.32	$258.74	+$62.42	54% 14280-12067 (26347)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 24.1¢	$187.62	$178.38	-$9.24	56% 13876-10857 (24733)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.9¢	$51.6	$178.38	+$126.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.1¢	$136.02	—	-$136.02
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 36.1¢	$118.59	$170.82	+$52.24	54% 10027-8513 (18540)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 27.7¢	$219.96	$112.81	-$107.15	54% 15073-12979 (28052)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$54.75	$112.81	+$58.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.7¢	$165.21	—	-$165.21
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 26¢	$167.39	$71	-$96.39	56% 7295-5625 (12920)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80¢	$56.81	$71	+$14.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 26¢	$110.58	—	-$110.58
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 97¢	$114.3	$100	-$14.3	65% 123475-66020 (189495)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 15¢	$15.73	$100.2	+$84.47	56% 57299-44283 (101582)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 78.4¢	$89.05	$80	-$9.05	57% 6467-4789 (11256)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$53.39	$60	+$6.6	65% 20472-11181 (31653)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$62.11	$44.51	-$17.6	66% 123706-63693 (187399)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 53.9¢	$39.75	—	-$39.75	58% 12436-9090 (21526)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 59¢	$26.1	$40	+$13.9	74% 101887-36252 (138139)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 81¢	$22.69	$28	+$5.31	78% 9200-2663 (11863)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$24.35	—	-$24.35	61% 93204-58582 (151786)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 62¢	$31.02	—	-$31.02	58% 59890-43717 (103607)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Downavg 65.8¢	$13.25	$20.14	+$6.89	69% 1568-709 (2277)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 15¢	$16.03	$106.87	+$90.84	62% 43445-26347 (69792)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$10.59	—	-$10.59	64% 39528-22542 (62070)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 47.3¢	$7.7	$16.28	+$8.58	65% 3778-2045 (5823)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 26.9¢	$18.16	—	-$18.16	66% 111093-57313 (168406)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 20.8¢	$9.78	—	-$9.78	52% 88749-83182 (171931)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 15.3¢	$25.22	—	+$46.21	51% 19546-18734 (38280)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$2,144.74

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

68%

98347-46616 (144963)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down

Invested

$671.44

Value

$623.69

PnL

-$47.75

Record

73%

94958-35591 (130549)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$430.32

Value

$233.97

PnL

-$196.35

Record

57%

9956-7469 (17425)

Both legs:

Up$360.3462.9¢-$360.34

Down$69.9829.9¢+$163.99

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$196.32

Value

$258.74

PnL

+$62.42

Record

54%

14280-12067 (26347)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$187.62

Value

$178.38

PnL

-$9.24

Record

56%

13876-10857 (24733)

Both legs:

Down$51.628.9¢+$126.79

Up$136.0224.1¢-$136.02

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$118.59

Value

$170.82

PnL

+$52.24

Record

54%

10027-8513 (18540)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$219.96

Value

$112.81

PnL

-$107.15

Record

54%

15073-12979 (28052)

Both legs:

Down$54.7548.5¢+$58.05

Up$165.2127.7¢-$165.21

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$167.39

Value

$71

PnL

-$96.39

Record

56%

7295-5625 (12920)

Both legs:

Invested

$114.3

Value

$100

PnL

-$14.3

Record

65%

123475-66020 (189495)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$15.73

Value

$100.2

PnL

+$84.47

Record

56%

57299-44283 (101582)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$89.05

Value

$80

PnL

-$9.05

Record

57%

6467-4789 (11256)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$53.39

Value

$60

PnL

+$6.6

Record

65%

20472-11181 (31653)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$62.11

Value

$44.51

PnL

-$17.6

Record

66%

123706-63693 (187399)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$39.75

Value

—

PnL

-$39.75

Record

58%

12436-9090 (21526)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$26.1

Value

$40

PnL

+$13.9

Record

74%

101887-36252 (138139)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$22.69

Value

$28

PnL

+$5.31

Record

78%

9200-2663 (11863)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$24.35

Value

—

PnL

-$24.35

Record

61%

93204-58582 (151786)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$31.02

Value

—

PnL

-$31.02

Record

58%

59890-43717 (103607)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Down

Invested

$13.25

Value

$20.14

PnL

+$6.89

Record

69%

1568-709 (2277)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$16.03

Value

$106.87

PnL

+$90.84

Record

62%

43445-26347 (69792)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$10.59

Value

—

PnL

-$10.59

Record

64%

39528-22542 (62070)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$7.7

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$8.58

Record

65%

3778-2045 (5823)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$18.16

Value

—

PnL

-$18.16

Record

66%

111093-57313 (168406)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$9.78

Value

—

PnL

-$9.78

Record

52%

88749-83182 (171931)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$25.22

Value

—

PnL

+$46.21

Record

51%

19546-18734 (38280)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 24 top traders (46%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0cc40b2a...954db8

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793089800

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.1K

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down — $623.69

-$47.75

trdyugiolkw

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$196.35

tmsd-test

Down — $258.74

+$62.42

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$9.24

thesidehustle

Down — $170.82

aswfadq1555

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $100

-$14.3

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $100.2

+$84.47

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