Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 78%
4 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$249.9
Smart Money Signal
14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 73.1¢ | $809.38 | $814.33 | +$4.95 | 57% 9939-7449 (17388) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 | Downavg 82¢ | $951.11 | $725.29 | -$225.82 | 73% 94953-35587 (130540) |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $228.29 | $242 | +$13.71 | 54% 9990-8484 (18474) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.5¢ | $165.8 | $242 | +$76.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.8¢ | $62.49 | — | -$62.49 | |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 83.4¢ | $182.74 | $167.28 | -$15.46 | 55% 43472-35889 (79361) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $176.24 | $131.92 | -$44.32 | 56% 13852-10844 (24696) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76.4¢ | $100.74 | $131.92 | +$31.18 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.5¢ | $75.5 | — | -$75.5 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 78.7¢ | $157.21 | $137.02 | -$20.18 | 64% 57162-31972 (89134) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $91.3 | $105 | +$13.7 | 54% 15063-12971 (28034) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31¢ | $48.88 | — | -$48.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.4¢ | $42.42 | $105 | +$62.58 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $120.48 | $128 | +$7.51 | 57% 6455-4788 (11243) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.5¢ | $87.68 | $128 | +$40.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.8¢ | $32.8 | — | -$32.8 | |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 55.8¢ | $63.08 | $113 | +$49.92 | 12% 17845-132659 (150504) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $41.25 | $74.73 | +$33.48 | 58% 12428-9087 (21515) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 81.4¢ | $64.24 | $78.9 | +$14.66 | 56% 57277-44272 (101549) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 83.3¢ | $63.5 | $59.29 | -$4.21 | 55% 16944-13598 (30542) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $54.02 | $60 | +$5.98 | 56% 7276-5609 (12885) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $39.42 | — | -$32.28 | 65% 123417-65985 (189402) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 88.2¢ | $34.55 | $29.66 | -$4.89 | 61% 93036-58467 (151503) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $28.98 | $36.7 | +$7.72 | 66% 123643-63650 (187293) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $32.02 | — | -$32.02 | 58% 59871-43705 (103576) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 81.2¢ | $58.25 | $20 | -$17.68 | 65% 20395-11132 (31527) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $21.49 | $25.37 | +$3.88 | 64% 39513-22533 (62046) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $15.3 | — | -$15.3 | 51% 19529-18721 (38250) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.7¢ | $6.45 | — | -$6.45 | 52% 88693-83140 (171833) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $4.83 | $8.62 | +$3.79 | 66% 111044-57268 (168312) |
Invested
$809.38
Value
$814.33
PnL
+$4.95
Record
57%
9939-7449 (17388)
Invested
$951.11
Value
$725.29
PnL
-$225.82
Record
73%
94953-35587 (130540)
Invested
$228.29
Value
$242
PnL
+$13.71
Record
54%
9990-8484 (18474)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$182.74
Value
$167.28
PnL
-$15.46
Record
55%
43472-35889 (79361)
Invested
$176.24
Value
$131.92
PnL
-$44.32
Record
56%
13852-10844 (24696)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$157.21
Value
$137.02
PnL
-$20.18
Record
64%
57162-31972 (89134)
Invested
$91.3
Value
$105
PnL
+$13.7
Record
54%
15063-12971 (28034)
Both legs:
Invested
$120.48
Value
$128
PnL
+$7.51
Record
57%
6455-4788 (11243)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.08
Value
$113
PnL
+$49.92
Record
12%
17845-132659 (150504)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$41.25
Value
$74.73
PnL
+$33.48
Record
58%
12428-9087 (21515)
Invested
$64.24
Value
$78.9
PnL
+$14.66
Record
56%
57277-44272 (101549)
Invested
$63.5
Value
$59.29
PnL
-$4.21
Record
55%
16944-13598 (30542)
Invested
$54.02
Value
$60
PnL
+$5.98
Record
56%
7276-5609 (12885)
Invested
$39.42
Value
—
PnL
-$32.28
Record
65%
123417-65985 (189402)
Invested
$34.55
Value
$29.66
PnL
-$4.89
Record
61%
93036-58467 (151503)
Invested
$28.98
Value
$36.7
PnL
+$7.72
Record
66%
123643-63650 (187293)
Invested
$32.02
Value
—
PnL
-$32.02
Record
58%
59871-43705 (103576)
Invested
$58.25
Value
$20
PnL
-$17.68
Record
65%
20395-11132 (31527)
ohioism<$100Invested
$21.49
Value
$25.37
PnL
+$3.88
Record
64%
39513-22533 (62046)
Invested
$15.3
Value
—
PnL
-$15.3
Record
51%
19529-18721 (38250)
Invested
$6.45
Value
—
PnL
-$6.45
Record
52%
88693-83140 (171833)
Invested
$4.83
Value
$8.62
PnL
+$3.79
Record
66%
111044-57268 (168312)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
Down — $814.33
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
Down — $725.29
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Down — $167.28
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $137.02
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hsilverbasher
Down — $113
wowitsamazing
Down — $74.73