Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-11-01?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$15.5K
$-1.5K
93.4¢ → 99.4¢
+6% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 95.1¢ | $7.3K | $7.1K | -$239.98 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 96.1¢ | $3.9K | $3.0K | -$864.64 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
K5 k56 | Noavg 86¢ | $3.5K | $3.0K | -$17.44 | 57% 888-658 (1546) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.6¢ | $2.5K | $2.1K | -$334.54 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $253.92 | $122.04 | -$131.88 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 94¢ | $83.39 | $86.94 | +$3.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $170.54 | $35.11 | -$135.43 | |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $97.93 | $70.31 | -$27.62 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $65.88 | $69.16 | +$3.28 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $7.8 | $5.1 | -$2.7 | 54% 6435-5416 (11851) |
Invested
$7,312.79
Value
$7.1K
PnL
-$239.98
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$3,897.07
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$864.64
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$3,488.37
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$17.44
Record
57%
888-658 (1546)
Invested
$2,452.27
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$334.54
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$253.92
Value
$122.04
PnL
-$131.88
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.93
Value
$70.31
PnL
-$27.62
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$65.88
Value
$69.16
PnL
+$3.28
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$2.7
Record
54%
6435-5416 (11851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.