Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

SE Palmeiras vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 43¢ · $461 held · ends Nov 1

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$461.23

Combined PnL

$3.36

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 42.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$459.92

Total Shares1,004

Combined PnL+$3.28

Under1 trader

Total Value$1.31

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.08

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 46¢	$424.58	$424.58	+$4.62	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 45.2¢	$33.33	$32.07	-$1.26	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.2	$2.12	-$0.07	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 53¢	$1.23	$1.31	+$0.08	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$1.15	$1.15	+$0	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$424.58

Value

$424.58

PnL

+$4.62

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.33

Value

$32.07

PnL

-$1.26

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.