Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-11-01?

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 96¢ · $48K held · ended Nov 1

Yes96¢No4¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 95.5¢

+41% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 19 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$29.8K

Total Shares36,223

Combined PnL$-1.5K

No7 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares37,671

Combined PnL-$0.87

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 70.2¢	$12.8K	$13.1K	+$281.9	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
us391CTR	Noavg 45.6¢	$8.4K	$8.4K	-$11.99	51% 1713-1675 (3388)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 80.7¢	$7.5K	$5.8K	$-1.7K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
AY ay118CTR	Noavg 45.4¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$15.18	47% 36-41 (77)
PP ppku6298CTR	Noavg 45¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$35.83	45% 96-119 (215)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 78.2¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$30.01	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
KY Kyn008	Yesavg 54¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$23.43	49% 258-268 (526)
K5 k56	Yesavg 59.5¢	$4.2K	$2.5K	+$0.77	57% 888-658 (1546)
OL OldZz	Yesavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$11.5	46% 103-119 (222)
fraj0la	Yesavg 55¢	$1,000	$990.91	-$9.09	63% 234-136 (370)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 44¢	$1.3K	$560.19	+$13.09	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$352.09	$363.99	+$7.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.3¢	$195.64	$196.19	+$5.8
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 83.1¢	$529.78	$527.71	-$2.07	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 42.8¢	$422.76	$439.37	+$16.61	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
└ No leg	Noavg 42.8¢	$235.38	$250.25	+$14.87
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54¢	$187.38	$189.12	+$1.74
HRTrading	Yesavg 79.7¢	$463.26	$390.79	-$72.46	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Noavg 37.3¢	$798.11	$193.39	-$604.71	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 93.8¢	$108.26	$110.27	+$2.02
└ No leg	Noavg 37.3¢	$689.85	$83.12	-$606.73
BE Betziko	Yesavg 75.8¢	$176.7	$160.92	-$15.78	54% 6435-5416 (11851)
bernardi22CTR	Noavg 9.8¢	$1.2K	$61.56	+$5.24	56% 1300-1021 (2321)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$58.89	$57.92	-$0.97	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$63.75	$20.62	-$43.12	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$14.71	$14.63	-$0.08	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$11	$10.9	-$0.1	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$10	$8.96	-$1.04	66% 23472-11826 (35298)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$12,800.82

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$281.9

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

us391CTR

Invested

$8,415.76

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$11.99

Record

51%

1713-1675 (3388)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$7,456.11

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

ay118CTR

Invested

$4,699.98

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$15.18

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

ppku6298CTR

Invested

$3,224.71

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$35.83

Record

45%

96-119 (215)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$2,628.25

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$30.01

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

Kyn008

Yes

Invested

$2,529.95

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$23.43

Record

49%

258-268 (526)

k56

Yes

Invested

$4,202.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0.77

Record

57%

888-658 (1546)

OldZz

Yes

Invested

$1,265

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$11.5

Record

46%

103-119 (222)

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$990.91

PnL

-$9.09

Record

63%

234-136 (370)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$1,346.98

Value

$560.19

PnL

+$13.09

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Both legs:

Invested

$529.78

Value

$527.71

PnL

-$2.07

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$422.76

Value

$439.37

PnL

+$16.61

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Both legs:

No$235.3842.8¢+$14.87

Yes$187.3854¢+$1.74

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$463.26

Value

$390.79

PnL

-$72.46

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Invested

$798.11

Value

$193.39

PnL

-$604.71

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

Both legs:

Yes$108.2693.8¢+$2.02

No$689.8537.3¢-$606.73

Betziko

Yes

Invested

$176.7

Value

$160.92

PnL

-$15.78

Record

54%

6435-5416 (11851)

bernardi22CTR

Invested

$1,206.26

Value

$61.56

PnL

+$5.24

Record

56%

1300-1021 (2321)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$58.89

Value

$57.92

PnL

-$0.97

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$63.75

Value

$20.62

PnL

-$43.12

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.71

Value

$14.63

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$10.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$8.96

PnL

-$1.04

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 19 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.