Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 62¢ · $43K held · ended Nov 1

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.2K

Combined PnL

$193.28

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 61.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares37,265

Combined PnL+$5.29

Under6 traders

Total Value$19.0K

Total Shares30,749

Combined PnL+$187.99

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcottCTR	Overavg 38.5¢	$13.5K	$13.5K	-$11.5	49% 110-116 (226)
RN1	Underavg 61.3¢	$9.2K	$9.2K	+$25.06	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Underavg 61.6¢	$8.7K	$8.9K	+$202.47	55% 1781-1468 (3249)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 61.6¢	$6.0K	$5.6K	-$342.46	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.6¢	$4.7K	$4.2K	-$542.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.2¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$200.17
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 61.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$5.36	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$9.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.82
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 63¢	$923.52	$839.31	-$84.21	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63¢	$672.91	$469.99	-$202.92
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$250.61	$369.32	+$118.71
NooseracCTR	Overavg 38¢	$770.59	$780.73	+$10.14	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004	Underavg 54¢	$702	$669.5	-$32.5	56% 157-124 (281)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 40¢	$634.27	$617.81	-$16.47	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$469.8	$452.18	-$17.62
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.1¢	$164.47	$165.62	+$1.15
VeryLucky888	Underavg 61.1¢	$370.99	$184.5	-$8.5	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$68.21	$69.11	+$0.9	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 62.6¢	$44.77	$45.44	+$0.67	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Overavg 37.6¢	$20.82	$26.57	+$5.75	63% 1209-696 (1905)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$2.37	$3.15	+$0.78	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.01	$1.01	+$0	59% 30682-21402 (52084)

theowalcottCTR

Over

Invested

$13,486.5

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$11.5

Record

49%

110-116 (226)

RN1

Under

Invested

$9,207.82

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$25.06

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Under

Invested

$8,655.26

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$202.47

Record

55%

1781-1468 (3249)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,980.33

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$342.46

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

Under$4,729.8361.6¢-$542.63

Over$1,250.539.2¢+$200.17

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,720.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$5.36

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Under$1,602.7561.9¢-$9.46

Over$1,118.2438¢+$14.82

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$923.52

Value

$839.31

PnL

-$84.21

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

Both legs:

Under$672.9163¢-$202.92

Over$250.6138¢+$118.71

NooseracCTR

Over

Invested

$770.59

Value

$780.73

PnL

+$10.14

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004

Under

Invested

$702

Value

$669.5

PnL

-$32.5

Record

56%

157-124 (281)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$634.27

Value

$617.81

PnL

-$16.47

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

Both legs:

Over$469.840¢-$17.62

Under$164.4761.1¢+$1.15

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$370.99

Value

$184.5

PnL

-$8.5

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.21

Value

$69.11

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$44.77

Value

$45.44

PnL

+$0.67

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.82

Value

$26.57

PnL

+$5.75

Record

63%

1209-696 (1905)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$2.37

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.