Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-11-01?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$1.8K
$155.75
77.5¢ → 89¢
+15% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 75.6¢ | $793.88 | $902.77 | +$108.89 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 72.6¢ | $428.22 | $486.3 | +$58.08 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 87.6¢ | $296.18 | $296.07 | -$0.1 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $94.25 | $87.02 | -$7.23 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.5¢ | $25.2 | $21.87 | -$3.32 | 65% 1759-964 (2723) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $13.18 | $14.58 | +$1.4 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $12.7 | $10.63 | -$2.07 | 54% 6435-5416 (11851) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $8.74 | $8.74 | -$0 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $4.83 | $4.9 | +$0.07 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $2.72 | $2.76 | +$0.04 | 62% 1191-725 (1916) |
Invested
$793.88
Value
$902.77
PnL
+$108.89
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$428.22
Value
$486.3
PnL
+$58.08
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$296.18
Value
$296.07
PnL
-$0.1
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$94.25
Value
$87.02
PnL
-$7.23
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$21.87
PnL
-$3.32
Record
65%
1759-964 (2723)
poshposh<$100Invested
$13.18
Value
$14.58
PnL
+$1.4
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$12.7
Value
$10.63
PnL
-$2.07
Record
54%
6435-5416 (11851)
Invested
$8.74
Value
$8.74
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.83
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$2.72
Value
$2.76
PnL
+$0.04
Record
62%
1191-725 (1916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.