Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-10-31?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 91¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$319.57

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 90.5¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,031

Combined PnL-$265.58

Yes6 traders

Total Value$202.8

Total Shares368

Combined PnL-$54

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 20.9¢	$582.32	$1.3K	+$732.82	50% 25253-24999 (50252)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.8¢	$166.71	$1.0K	+$879.34
└ No leg	Noavg 20.9¢	$415.61	$269.09	-$146.52
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$1.4K	$605.38	-$789.71	54% 56713-48922 (105635)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.6¢	$1.2K	$380.55	-$802.85
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75.8¢	$211.7	$224.83	+$13.14
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 71¢	$671.33	$592.78	-$78.55	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 79.2¢	$615.94	$578.29	-$37.65	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
FO foooool	Noavg 70.1¢	$366	$367.66	+$1.66	50% 10935-10765 (21700)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Yesavg 60.8¢	$82.56	$101.87	+$19.31	59% 30514-21223 (51737)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 74.8¢	$97.58	$49.23	-$48.35	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
poshposh	Noavg 83.8¢	$101.65	$45.62	-$56.04	59% 10284-7273 (17557)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 46.9¢	$114.22	$32.89	-$81.33	50% 33515-33076 (66591)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$31.58	$30.77	-$0.81	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.3¢	$17.2	$13.55	-$5.25	54% 6317-5345 (11662)
RO Rocky31<$100	Noavg 54¢	$30.24	$7.7	-$13.49	74% 1623-582 (2205)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 84¢	$6.92	$6.76	-$0.16	50% 19237-19616 (38853)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 54.8¢	$25.07	$6.41	-$18.66	49% 12704-13137 (25841)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.2	$0.96	-$0.24	67% 23363-11755 (35118)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$582.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$732.82

Record

50%

25253-24999 (50252)

Both legs:

Yes$166.7113.8¢+$879.34

No$415.6120.9¢-$146.52

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,395.09

Value

$605.38

PnL

-$789.71

Record

54%

56713-48922 (105635)

Both legs:

No$1,183.3960.6¢-$802.85

Yes$211.775.8¢+$13.14

UpTheBlues

Invested

$671.33

Value

$592.78

PnL

-$78.55

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$615.94

Value

$578.29

PnL

-$37.65

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

foooool

Invested

$366

Value

$367.66

PnL

+$1.66

Record

50%

10935-10765 (21700)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Yes

Invested

$82.56

Value

$101.87

PnL

+$19.31

Record

59%

30514-21223 (51737)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.58

Value

$49.23

PnL

-$48.35

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

poshposh

Invested

$101.65

Value

$45.62

PnL

-$56.04

Record

59%

10284-7273 (17557)

SnakeBall

Invested

$114.22

Value

$32.89

PnL

-$81.33

Record

50%

33515-33076 (66591)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.58

Value

$30.77

PnL

-$0.81

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.2

Value

$13.55

PnL

-$5.25

Record

54%

6317-5345 (11662)

Rocky31<$100

Invested

$30.24

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$13.49

Record

74%

1623-582 (2205)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$6.92

Value

$6.76

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

19237-19616 (38853)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.07

Value

$6.41

PnL

-$18.66

Record

49%

12704-13137 (25841)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.24

Record

67%

23363-11755 (35118)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.