Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Vila Nova FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 1.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $770 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$769.85

Combined PnL

-$189.98

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$541.21

Total Shares1,204

Combined PnL-$213.01

Over4 traders

Total Value$97.46

Total Shares145

Combined PnL+$23.03

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 52.9¢	$242.95	$178.09	-$64.85	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 44.8¢	$174.02	$174.7	+$0.68	50% 33515-33076 (66591)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 61.7¢	$289.23	$138.33	-$150.9	59% 30514-21223 (51737)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 52.8¢	$122.17	$131.18	+$9.01	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.8¢	$74.27	$85.76	+$11.49
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.1¢	$47.9	$45.42	-$2.48
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$44.21	$47.59	+$3.38	50% 10935-10765 (21700)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$30.43	$33.99	+$3.56	49% 12704-13137 (25841)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 56.3¢	$19.64	$31.1	+$11.46	59% 10284-7273 (17557)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 24¢	$14.36	$27.93	+$13.57	50% 25253-24999 (50252)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 98¢	$10	$4.44	-$5.56	67% 23363-11755 (35118)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 58.6¢	$3.81	$2.5	-$1.31	53% 4883-4360 (9243)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$242.95

Value

$178.09

PnL

-$64.85

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$174.02

Value

$174.7

PnL

+$0.68

Record

50%

33515-33076 (66591)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$289.23

Value

$138.33

PnL

-$150.9

Record

59%

30514-21223 (51737)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$122.17

Value

$131.18

PnL

+$9.01

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

Both legs:

Over$74.2752.8¢+$11.49

Under$47.941.1¢-$2.48

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.21

Value

$47.59

PnL

+$3.38

Record

50%

10935-10765 (21700)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$30.43

Value

$33.99

PnL

+$3.56

Record

49%

12704-13137 (25841)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$19.64

Value

$31.1

PnL

+$11.46

Record

59%

10284-7273 (17557)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$14.36

Value

$27.93

PnL

+$13.57

Record

50%

25253-24999 (50252)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$5.56

Record

67%

23363-11755 (35118)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.81

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$1.31

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.