Operário Ferroviário EC leading at halftime?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $521 held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$521.35

Combined PnL

$153.64

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 100¢

+63% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$478.46

Total Shares485

Combined PnL+$179.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$42.89

Total Shares158

Combined PnL-$25.51

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 57¢	$135.1	$236.99	+$101.88	35% 235-434 (669)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 67.4¢	$129.6	$192.08	+$62.48	55% 1709-1415 (3124)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$47.61	$37.87	-$9.74	47% 1724-1982 (3706)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 55¢	$18.33	$27.33	+$9	47% 508-580 (1088)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 64.8¢	$14.95	$20.07	+$5.12	34% 610-1204 (1814)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.6¢	$12.1	$5.01	-$7.09	33% 593-1215 (1808)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 56¢	$3.32	$1.99	+$0.67	52% 836-757 (1593)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.8¢	$7	$0.01	-$6.99	33% 589-1191 (1780)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$1.7	$0	-$1.7	35% 622-1179 (1801)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$135.1

Value

$236.99

PnL

+$101.88

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$129.6

Value

$192.08

PnL

+$62.48

Record

55%

1709-1415 (3124)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.61

Value

$37.87

PnL

-$9.74

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$18.33

Value

$27.33

PnL

+$9

Record

47%

508-580 (1088)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$14.95

Value

$20.07

PnL

+$5.12

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.1

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$7.09

Record

33%

593-1215 (1808)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$3.32

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0.67

Record

52%

836-757 (1593)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.99

Record

33%

589-1191 (1780)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

PnL

-$1.7

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.