Clube Náutico Capibaribe leading at halftime?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 93¢ · $342 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$342.11
$35.34
85.5¢ → 92.5¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 85.5¢ | $126.43 | $143.49 | +$17.06 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $78.77 | $89.97 | +$11.2 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 86.2¢ | $72.19 | $81.22 | +$9.03 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.6¢ | $18.7 | $16.63 | -$2.07 | 56% 1575-1256 (2831) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $8.6 | $8.7 | +$0.1 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.7¢ | $1.9 | $1.95 | +$0.05 | 45% 249-302 (551) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $0.19 | $0.15 | -$0.04 | 38% 156-251 (407) |
Invested
$126.43
Value
$143.49
PnL
+$17.06
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$78.77
Value
$89.97
PnL
+$11.2
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
Invested
$72.19
Value
$81.22
PnL
+$9.03
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
Invested
$18.7
Value
$16.63
PnL
-$2.07
Record
56%
1575-1256 (2831)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
45%
249-302 (551)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.04
Record
38%
156-251 (407)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.